Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / FBK Karlstad vs Vasalund

Prediction Audit: FBK Karlstad vs Vasalund Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FBK Karlstad FBK Karlstad
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 72%
Vasalund Vasalund

The model missed the final outcome (FBK Karlstad win 2–1).

The model had projected Vasalund at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vasalund FBK Karlstad ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FBK Karlstad higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FBK Karlstad -11.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FBK Karlstad 31.0% 42.4% -11.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 25.5% +4.0 pp Aligned
Vasalund 39.5% 32.1% +7.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates FBK Karlstad's win probability at 42.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was FBK Karlstad win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FBK Karlstad than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vasalund by 11.3 percentage points (50.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FBK Karlstad 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Vasalund 39.5%
    • xG · FBK Karlstad 1.21 — Vasalund 1.39
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FBK Karlstad 2.16 · Draw 3.59 · Vasalund 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · FBK Karlstad 42.4% · Draw 25.5% · Vasalund 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 12, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · FBK Karlstad 2.16 · Draw 3.59 · Vasalund 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · FBK Karlstad 42.4% · Draw 25.5% · Vasalund 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FBK Karlstad win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7439633

Closing Odds 2.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FBK Karlstad win · FBK Karlstad 2–1 Vasalund
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: FBK Karlstad vs Vasalund
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): FBK Karlstad 1.21 — Vasalund 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 17 3 4 54
2 AFC Eskilstuna 24 14 4 6 46
3 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
4 Arlanda 24 13 6 5 45
5 FBK Karlstad 24 12 6 6 42
6 IF Karlstad 24 11 7 6 40
7 Enköping 24 12 3 9 39
8 Assyriska FF 24 9 5 10 32
9 gefle IF 24 9 3 12 30
10 Umeå FC 24 8 5 11 29
11 Karlberg 24 8 5 11 29
12 Vasalund 24 7 6 11 27
13 Sollentuna 24 5 9 10 24
14 Piteå 24 5 6 13 21
15 Järfälla 24 5 3 16 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 57 20 +37 54
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 24 45 32 +13 46
4 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
5 Assyriska FF 24 43 42 +1 32
6 Arlanda 24 42 27 +15 45
7 FBK Karlstad 24 39 33 +6 42
8 Enköping 24 37 40 -3 39
9 IF Karlstad 24 36 24 +12 40
10 Vasalund 24 35 48 -13 27
11 Umeå FC 24 32 40 -8 29
12 Järfälla 24 32 54 -22 18
13 Karlberg 24 30 39 -9 29
14 gefle IF 24 29 42 -13 30
15 Piteå 24 29 45 -16 21
16 Sollentuna 24 22 33 -11 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions