Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Vasalund vs Enköping

Prediction Audit: Vasalund vs Enköping Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vasalund Vasalund
Sep 06, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.46
3 1.14
xG Accuracy: 52%
Enköping Enköping

The model missed the final outcome (Enköping win 2–3).

The model had projected Vasalund at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vasalund Enköping ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Vasalund higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vasalund -8.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vasalund 42.9% 51.5% -8.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 23.7% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Enköping 27.9% 24.9% +3.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Vasalund's win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Enköping win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Vasalund. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Vasalund; match finished Enköping

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vasalund by 8.6 percentage points (51.5% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vasalund 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Enköping 27.9%
    • xG · Vasalund 1.46 — Enköping 1.14
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vasalund 1.78 · Draw 3.87 · Enköping 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Vasalund 51.5% · Draw 23.7% · Enköping 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vasalund 1.78 · Draw 3.87 · Enköping 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Vasalund 51.5% · Draw 23.7% · Enköping 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Enköping win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 57/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6325105

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Enköping win · Vasalund 2–3 Enköping
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Vasalund vs Enköping
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Vasalund 1.46 — Enköping 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 17 3 4 54
2 AFC Eskilstuna 24 14 4 6 46
3 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
4 Arlanda 24 13 6 5 45
5 FBK Karlstad 24 12 6 6 42
6 IF Karlstad 24 11 7 6 40
7 Enköping 24 12 3 9 39
8 Assyriska FF 24 9 5 10 32
9 gefle IF 24 9 3 12 30
10 Umeå FC 24 8 5 11 29
11 Karlberg 24 8 5 11 29
12 Vasalund 24 7 6 11 27
13 Sollentuna 24 5 9 10 24
14 Piteå 24 5 6 13 21
15 Järfälla 24 5 3 16 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 57 20 +37 54
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 24 45 32 +13 46
4 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
5 Assyriska FF 24 43 42 +1 32
6 Arlanda 24 42 27 +15 45
7 FBK Karlstad 24 39 33 +6 42
8 Enköping 24 37 40 -3 39
9 IF Karlstad 24 36 24 +12 40
10 Vasalund 24 35 48 -13 27
11 Umeå FC 24 32 40 -8 29
12 Järfälla 24 32 54 -22 18
13 Karlberg 24 30 39 -9 29
14 gefle IF 24 29 42 -13 30
15 Piteå 24 29 45 -16 21
16 Sollentuna 24 22 33 -11 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions