Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / IF Karlstad vs AFC Eskilstuna

Prediction Audit: IF Karlstad vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

IF Karlstad IF Karlstad
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 72%
AFC Eskilstuna AFC Eskilstuna

The model missed the final outcome (AFC Eskilstuna win 1–2).

The model had projected IF Karlstad at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 IF Karlstad AFC Eskilstuna ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices IF Karlstad higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: IF Karlstad -7.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
IF Karlstad 39.5% 47.4% -7.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.7% +4.8 pp Aligned
AFC Eskilstuna 31.0% 27.9% +3.1 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates IF Karlstad's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was AFC Eskilstuna win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on IF Karlstad. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned IF Karlstad; match finished AFC Eskilstuna

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on IF Karlstad by 7.9 percentage points (47.4% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · IF Karlstad 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · AFC Eskilstuna 31.0%
    • xG · IF Karlstad 1.39 — AFC Eskilstuna 1.21
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · IF Karlstad 1.93 · Draw 3.70 · AFC Eskilstuna 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · IF Karlstad 47.4% · Draw 24.7% · AFC Eskilstuna 27.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · IF Karlstad 1.93 · Draw 3.70 · AFC Eskilstuna 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · IF Karlstad 47.4% · Draw 24.7% · AFC Eskilstuna 27.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result AFC Eskilstuna win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6143336

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AFC Eskilstuna win · IF Karlstad 1–2 AFC Eskilstuna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: IF Karlstad vs AFC Eskilstuna
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): IF Karlstad 1.39 — AFC Eskilstuna 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Ettan - Norra Matches Track IF Karlstad Next Match Prediction Track AFC Eskilstuna Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for IF Karlstad & AFC Eskilstuna!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 17 3 4 54
2 AFC Eskilstuna 24 14 4 6 46
3 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
4 Arlanda 24 13 6 5 45
5 FBK Karlstad 24 12 6 6 42
6 IF Karlstad 24 11 7 6 40
7 Enköping 24 12 3 9 39
8 Assyriska FF 24 9 5 10 32
9 gefle IF 24 9 3 12 30
10 Umeå FC 24 8 5 11 29
11 Karlberg 24 8 5 11 29
12 Vasalund 24 7 6 11 27
13 Sollentuna 24 5 9 10 24
14 Piteå 24 5 6 13 21
15 Järfälla 24 5 3 16 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 57 20 +37 54
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 24 45 32 +13 46
4 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
5 Assyriska FF 24 43 42 +1 32
6 Arlanda 24 42 27 +15 45
7 FBK Karlstad 24 39 33 +6 42
8 Enköping 24 37 40 -3 39
9 IF Karlstad 24 36 24 +12 40
10 Vasalund 24 35 48 -13 27
11 Umeå FC 24 32 40 -8 29
12 Järfälla 24 32 54 -22 18
13 Karlberg 24 30 39 -9 29
14 gefle IF 24 29 42 -13 30
15 Piteå 24 29 45 -16 21
16 Sollentuna 24 22 33 -11 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions