Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Stocksund vs gefle IF

Prediction Audit: Stocksund vs gefle IF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stocksund Stocksund
Aug 08, 2026 - 14:00
5 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 25%
gefle IF gefle IF

AI correctly predicted the Stocksund win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stocksund Stocksund ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Stocksund win 5–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Stocksund 1.31 — gefle IF 1.29
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Stocksund win · 5–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2817198

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stocksund win · Stocksund 5–0 gefle IF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Stocksund vs gefle IF
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Stocksund 1.31 — gefle IF 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 25 18 3 4 57
2 Arlanda 25 14 6 5 48
3 AFC Eskilstuna 25 14 5 6 47
4 Hammarby Talang 25 13 6 6 45
5 FBK Karlstad 25 12 7 6 43
6 Enköping 25 13 3 9 42
7 IF Karlstad 25 11 8 6 41
8 Assyriska FF 25 9 5 11 32
9 Umeå FC 25 9 5 11 32
10 Karlberg 25 9 5 11 32
11 gefle IF 25 9 3 13 30
12 Vasalund 25 7 6 12 27
13 Sollentuna 25 5 9 11 24
14 Piteå 25 5 7 13 22
15 Järfälla 25 5 4 16 19
16 Stocksund 25 3 6 16 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 25 60 20 +40 57
2 Hammarby Talang 25 51 25 +26 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 25 47 34 +13 47
4 Arlanda 25 46 28 +18 48
5 Stocksund 25 45 61 -16 15
6 Assyriska FF 25 43 45 -2 32
7 FBK Karlstad 25 41 35 +6 43
8 Enköping 25 38 40 -2 42
9 IF Karlstad 25 37 25 +12 41
10 Vasalund 25 36 52 -16 27
11 Umeå FC 25 34 41 -7 32
12 Karlberg 25 33 41 -8 32
13 Järfälla 25 33 55 -22 19
14 Piteå 25 30 46 -16 22
15 gefle IF 25 29 43 -14 30
16 Sollentuna 25 24 36 -12 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions