Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Arlanda vs Piteå

Prediction Audit: Arlanda vs Piteå Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arlanda Arlanda
Aug 09, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 49%
Piteå Piteå

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Arlanda at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arlanda Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Arlanda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Arlanda -22.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arlanda 42.4% 65.0% -22.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 19.7% +9.6 pp Model Higher
Piteå 28.4% 15.3% +13.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Arlanda's win probability at 65.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 22.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Arlanda; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Arlanda by 22.6 percentage points (65.0% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arlanda 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Piteå 28.4%
    • xG · Arlanda 1.45 — Piteå 1.15
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arlanda 1.41 · Draw 4.65 · Piteå 6.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Arlanda 65.0% · Draw 19.7% · Piteå 15.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Arlanda 1.41 · Draw 4.65 · Piteå 6.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Arlanda 65.0% · Draw 19.7% · Piteå 15.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2965147

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Arlanda 0–0 Piteå
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Arlanda vs Piteå
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Arlanda 1.45 — Piteå 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 17 3 4 54
2 AFC Eskilstuna 24 14 4 6 46
3 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
4 Arlanda 24 13 6 5 45
5 FBK Karlstad 24 12 6 6 42
6 IF Karlstad 24 11 7 6 40
7 Enköping 24 12 3 9 39
8 Assyriska FF 24 9 5 10 32
9 Karlberg 25 9 5 11 32
10 gefle IF 24 9 3 12 30
11 Umeå FC 24 8 5 11 29
12 Vasalund 24 7 6 11 27
13 Sollentuna 25 5 9 11 24
14 Piteå 24 5 6 13 21
15 Järfälla 24 5 3 16 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 57 20 +37 54
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 24 45 32 +13 46
4 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
5 Assyriska FF 24 43 42 +1 32
6 Arlanda 24 42 27 +15 45
7 FBK Karlstad 24 39 33 +6 42
8 Enköping 24 37 40 -3 39
9 IF Karlstad 24 36 24 +12 40
10 Vasalund 24 35 48 -13 27
11 Karlberg 25 33 41 -8 32
12 Umeå FC 24 32 40 -8 29
13 Järfälla 24 32 54 -22 18
14 gefle IF 24 29 42 -13 30
15 Piteå 24 29 45 -16 21
16 Sollentuna 25 24 36 -12 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions