AI correctly predicted the Firpo win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
A
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Firpo Firpo ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Firpo win 3–1).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Firpo 1.49 — Platense 1.23
-
Feb 15, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Firpo win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Firpo win · Firpo 3–1 Platense
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | FAS | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 3 | Alianza | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Isidro Metapán | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 5 | Águila | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Municipal Limeño | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Cacahuatique | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 8 | Platense | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 26 |
| 9 | Fuerte San Francisco | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 20 |
| 10 | Zacatecoluca | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 11 | Hércules | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | Inter | 22 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 22 | 49 | 25 | +24 | 44 |
| 2 | Firpo | 22 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 50 |
| 3 | Alianza | 22 | 37 | 20 | +17 | 44 |
| 4 | Isidro Metapán | 22 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 36 |
| 5 | Platense | 22 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 26 |
| 6 | Municipal Limeño | 22 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 28 |
| 7 | Águila | 22 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 33 |
| 8 | Cacahuatique | 22 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Inter | 22 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Fuerte San Francisco | 22 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 20 |
| 11 | Hércules | 22 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 17 |
| 12 | Zacatecoluca | 22 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 18 |
