Predictions / Football / Tunisia. Ligue 1 / ES Metlaoui vs AS Soliman

Prediction Audit: ES Metlaoui vs AS Soliman Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui
Jan 23, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.49
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 70%
AS Soliman AS Soliman

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected ES Metlaoui at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ES Metlaoui Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned ES Metlaoui; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · ES Metlaoui 1.49 — AS Soliman 1.23
  2. Jan 23, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1665310

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · ES Metlaoui 2–2 AS Soliman
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Africain 19 12 5 2 41
2 ES Tunis 18 12 4 2 40
3 Stade Tunisien 19 10 8 1 38
4 CS Sfaxien 19 10 5 4 35
5 US Monastirienne 20 8 9 3 33
6 ES Sahel 20 7 6 7 27
7 ES Zarzis 20 7 5 8 26
8 ES Metlaoui 19 6 8 5 26
9 US Ben Guerdane 19 5 9 5 24
10 AS Marsa 20 7 1 12 22
11 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 19 6 4 9 22
12 CA Bizertin 19 5 5 9 20
13 JS Kairouanaise 20 6 2 12 20
14 Olympique Béja 20 5 3 12 18
15 AS Gabes 20 3 7 10 16
16 AS Soliman 19 2 7 10 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ES Tunis 18 31 6 +25 40
2 CS Sfaxien 19 26 10 +16 35
3 Club Africain 19 24 7 +17 41
4 Stade Tunisien 19 20 4 +16 38
5 US Monastirienne 20 20 13 +7 33
6 ES Sahel 20 19 17 +2 27
7 ES Zarzis 20 19 19 0 26
8 AS Marsa 20 18 20 -2 22
9 US Ben Guerdane 19 13 15 -2 24
10 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 19 13 20 -7 22
11 JS Kairouanaise 20 13 30 -17 20
12 ES Metlaoui 19 12 15 -3 26
13 CA Bizertin 19 11 20 -9 20
14 AS Gabes 20 10 24 -14 16
15 AS Soliman 19 9 19 -10 13
16 Olympique Béja 20 9 28 -19 18