Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Olympic vs trelleborgs FF

Prediction Audit: Olympic vs trelleborgs FF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Olympic Olympic
Oct 04, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
trelleborgs FF trelleborgs FF

The model missed the final outcome (trelleborgs FF win 0–2).

The model had projected Olympic at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olympic trelleborgs FF ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices trelleborgs FF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: trelleborgs FF -9.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Olympic 35.6% 30.7% +4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.4% +4.2 pp Aligned
trelleborgs FF 34.7% 43.8% -9.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates trelleborgs FF's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was trelleborgs FF win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on trelleborgs FF. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Olympic; match finished trelleborgs FF
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Olympic by 9.1 percentage points (44.7% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 04, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Olympic 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · trelleborgs FF 34.7%
    • xG · Olympic 1.31 — trelleborgs FF 1.29
  2. Oct 04, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Olympic 2.98 · Draw 3.60 · trelleborgs FF 2.09
    • Implied 1X2 · Olympic 30.7% · Draw 25.4% · trelleborgs FF 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 04, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Olympic 2.98 · Draw 3.60 · trelleborgs FF 2.09
    • Implied 1X2 · Olympic 30.7% · Draw 25.4% · trelleborgs FF 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 04, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result trelleborgs FF win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11662113

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result trelleborgs FF win · Olympic 0–2 trelleborgs FF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Olympic vs trelleborgs FF
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Olympic 1.31 — trelleborgs FF 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.0% · Probability edge: +13.8 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 25 13 7 5 46
3 Hässleholms IF 25 14 3 8 45
4 Lund 25 11 8 6 41
5 AFC Malmo 25 11 8 6 41
6 Trollhättan 25 10 8 7 38
7 Rosengård 25 10 8 7 38
8 Jonkopings Sodra 25 9 6 10 33
9 Tvååker 25 9 6 10 33
10 Skövde AIK 25 8 9 8 33
11 Eskilsminne 25 9 5 11 32
12 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
13 Kristianstad 25 7 6 12 27
14 Laholm 25 7 4 14 25
15 Angelholms FF 25 4 9 12 21
16 Utsikten 25 2 6 17 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 25 49 35 +14 46
3 Lund 25 46 29 +17 41
4 Hässleholms IF 25 46 30 +16 45
5 AFC Malmo 25 45 35 +10 41
6 Trollhättan 25 42 37 +5 38
7 Rosengård 25 41 37 +4 38
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 25 40 44 -4 32
10 Tvååker 25 33 39 -6 33
11 Laholm 25 32 43 -11 25
12 Skövde AIK 25 31 38 -7 33
13 Angelholms FF 25 31 47 -16 21
14 Jonkopings Sodra 25 29 26 +3 33
15 Kristianstad 25 29 37 -8 27
16 Utsikten 25 23 60 -37 12
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