Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Rosengård vs trelleborgs FF

Prediction Audit: Rosengård vs trelleborgs FF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rosengård Rosengård
Sep 17, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.22
4 1.38
xG Accuracy: 30%
trelleborgs FF trelleborgs FF

AI correctly predicted the trelleborgs FF win.

The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 trelleborgs FF trelleborgs FF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +6.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rosengård 31.5% 34.5% -3.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 23.5% +6.0 pp Model Higher
trelleborgs FF 39.0% 42.0% -3.0 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (trelleborgs FF win 3–4).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced trelleborgs FF more conservatively (33.0% vs model 39.0%, 6.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (trelleborgs FF win 3–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rosengård 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · trelleborgs FF 39.0%
    • xG · Rosengård 1.22 — trelleborgs FF 1.38
  2. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rosengård 2.69 · Draw 3.94 · trelleborgs FF 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Rosengård 34.5% · Draw 23.5% · trelleborgs FF 42.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rosengård 2.69 · Draw 3.94 · trelleborgs FF 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Rosengård 34.5% · Draw 23.5% · trelleborgs FF 42.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result trelleborgs FF win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 70/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 03:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7998257

Closing Odds 3.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result trelleborgs FF win · Rosengård 3–4 trelleborgs FF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Rosengård vs trelleborgs FF
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Rosengård 1.22 — trelleborgs FF 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.6% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +10.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 AFC Malmo 24 10 8 6 38
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Angelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 24 44 35 +9 38
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
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