Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / trelleborgs FF vs Utsikten

Prediction Audit: trelleborgs FF vs Utsikten Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

trelleborgs FF trelleborgs FF
Aug 30, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Utsikten Utsikten

AI correctly predicted the trelleborgs FF win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 trelleborgs FF trelleborgs FF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices trelleborgs FF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: trelleborgs FF -41.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
trelleborgs FF 36.1% 77.9% -41.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 13.0% +16.7 pp Model Edge
Utsikten 34.2% 9.1% +25.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates trelleborgs FF's win probability at 77.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 41.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (trelleborgs FF win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced trelleborgs FF higher (77.9% vs model 36.1%, 41.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (trelleborgs FF win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · trelleborgs FF 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Utsikten 34.2%
    • xG · trelleborgs FF 1.32 — Utsikten 1.28
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · trelleborgs FF 1.17 · Draw 7.02 · Utsikten 10.04
    • Implied 1X2 · trelleborgs FF 77.9% · Draw 13.0% · Utsikten 9.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · trelleborgs FF 1.17 · Draw 7.02 · Utsikten 10.04
    • Implied 1X2 · trelleborgs FF 77.9% · Draw 13.0% · Utsikten 9.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result trelleborgs FF win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (42 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5295078

Closing Odds 1.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result trelleborgs FF win · trelleborgs FF 2–1 Utsikten
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours trelleborgs FF; market prices trelleborgs FF instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: trelleborgs FF 1.32 xG vs Utsikten 1.28 → trelleborgs FF 36.1%
  • Market: trelleborgs FF ~77.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 23 14 6 3 48
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
6 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
7 AFC Malmo 23 9 8 6 35
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 23 8 5 10 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Angelholms FF 23 3 9 11 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 23 49 27 +22 48
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 23 42 34 +8 35
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 23 38 42 -4 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 23 27 43 -16 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
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