Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Trollhättan vs trelleborgs FF

Prediction Audit: Trollhättan vs trelleborgs FF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Trollhättan Trollhättan
Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 78%
trelleborgs FF trelleborgs FF

AI correctly predicted the Trollhättan win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Trollhättan Trollhättan ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices trelleborgs FF higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: trelleborgs FF -16.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Trollhättan 37.5% 24.4% +13.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 26.2% +3.4 pp Aligned
trelleborgs FF 32.9% 49.3% -16.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates trelleborgs FF's win probability at 49.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 16.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Trollhättan win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about trelleborgs FF than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Trollhättan higher (54.0% vs model 37.5%, 16.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Trollhättan win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Trollhättan 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · trelleborgs FF 32.9%
    • xG · Trollhättan 1.35 — trelleborgs FF 1.25
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Trollhättan 3.53 · Draw 3.29 · trelleborgs FF 1.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Trollhättan 24.4% · Draw 26.2% · trelleborgs FF 49.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Trollhättan 3.53 · Draw 3.29 · trelleborgs FF 1.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Trollhättan 24.4% · Draw 26.2% · trelleborgs FF 49.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Trollhättan win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4224108

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Trollhättan win · Trollhättan 2–1 trelleborgs FF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Trollhättan vs trelleborgs FF
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Trollhättan 1.35 — trelleborgs FF 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 25 11 8 6 41
5 AFC Malmo 25 11 8 6 41
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 25 7 6 12 27
14 Laholm 25 7 4 14 25
15 Angelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 25 46 29 +17 41
4 AFC Malmo 25 45 35 +10 41
5 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 25 32 43 -11 25
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 25 29 37 -8 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
Ettan - Södra Sweden. Ettan - Södra Predictions