Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Rosengård vs Jonkopings Sodra

Prediction Audit: Rosengård vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rosengård Rosengård
Aug 02, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.13
2 1.47
xG Accuracy: 39%
Jonkopings Sodra Jonkopings Sodra

The model missed the final outcome (Rosengård win 4–2).

The model had projected Jonkopings Sodra at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jonkopings Sodra Rosengård ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rosengård higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rosengård -14.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rosengård 27.5% 41.5% -14.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 27.0% +2.1 pp Aligned
Jonkopings Sodra 43.4% 31.5% +11.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Rosengård's win probability at 41.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Rosengård win 4–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rosengård than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Jonkopings Sodra; match finished Rosengård

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jonkopings Sodra by 14.0 percentage points (57.4% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rosengård 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Jonkopings Sodra 43.3%
    • xG · Rosengård 1.13 — Jonkopings Sodra 1.47
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rosengård 2.21 · Draw 3.39 · Jonkopings Sodra 2.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Rosengård 41.5% · Draw 27.0% · Jonkopings Sodra 31.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rosengård 2.21 · Draw 3.39 · Jonkopings Sodra 2.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Rosengård 41.5% · Draw 27.0% · Jonkopings Sodra 31.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rosengård win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1947095

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rosengård win · Rosengård 4–2 Jonkopings Sodra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Rosengård vs Jonkopings Sodra
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Rosengård 1.13 — Jonkopings Sodra 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 AFC Malmo 24 10 8 6 38
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Angelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 24 44 35 +9 38
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
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