Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Angelholms FF vs AFC Malmo

Prediction Audit: Angelholms FF vs AFC Malmo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Angelholms FF Angelholms FF
Aug 01, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 68%
⚽
AFC Malmo

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Angelholms FF at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Angelholms FF Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices AFC Malmo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: AFC Malmo -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Angelholms FF 35.6% 32.5% +3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
AFC Malmo 34.7% 40.9% -6.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates AFC Malmo's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on AFC Malmo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Angelholms FF; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Angelholms FF by 6.2 percentage points (41.8% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Angelholms FF 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · AFC Malmo 34.7%
    • xG · Angelholms FF 1.31 — AFC Malmo 1.29
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Angelholms FF 2.82 · Draw 3.45 · AFC Malmo 2.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Angelholms FF 32.5% · Draw 26.6% · AFC Malmo 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Angelholms FF 2.82 · Draw 3.45 · AFC Malmo 2.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Angelholms FF 32.5% · Draw 26.6% · AFC Malmo 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1790343

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Angelholms FF 2–2 AFC Malmo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Angelholms FF vs AFC Malmo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Angelholms FF 1.31 — AFC Malmo 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 AFC Malmo 24 10 8 6 38
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Angelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 24 44 35 +9 38
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
Ettan - Södra Sweden. Ettan - Södra Predictions