Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Trollhättan vs Angelholms FF

Prediction Audit: Trollhättan vs Angelholms FF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Trollhättan Trollhättan
Jun 27, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Angelholms FF Angelholms FF

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Trollhättan at 37.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Trollhättan Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Angelholms FF -3.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Trollhättan 37.3% 36.8% +0.5 pp Aligned
Draw 28.7% 26.1% +2.6 pp Aligned
Angelholms FF 34.0% 37.1% -3.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Trollhättan; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 20:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Trollhättan 37.3% · Draw 28.7% · Angelholms FF 34.0%
    • xG · Trollhättan 1.35 — Angelholms FF 1.25
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Trollhättan 2.49 · Draw 3.51 · Angelholms FF 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Trollhättan 36.8% · Draw 26.1% · Angelholms FF 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Trollhättan 2.49 · Draw 3.51 · Angelholms FF 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Trollhättan 36.8% · Draw 26.1% · Angelholms FF 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 29/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 22:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2540084

Closing Odds 2.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Trollhättan 1–1 Angelholms FF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Trollhättan vs Angelholms FF
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Trollhättan 1.35 — Angelholms FF 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 25 11 8 6 41
5 AFC Malmo 25 11 8 6 41
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 25 7 6 12 27
14 Laholm 25 7 4 14 25
15 Angelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 25 46 29 +17 41
4 AFC Malmo 25 45 35 +10 41
5 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 25 32 43 -11 25
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 25 29 37 -8 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
Ettan - Södra Sweden. Ettan - Södra Predictions