Prediction Audit: Trollhättan vs Kristianstad Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Trollhättan

Jun 13, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 85%

Kristianstad

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Trollhättan at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Trollhättan Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Trollhättan; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 13, 2026 · 19:50 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Trollhättan 1.35 — Kristianstad 1.25
Jun 13, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 15:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2047794

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Trollhättan 1–1 Kristianstad

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Ettan - Södra
Fixture: Trollhättan vs Kristianstad
Kickoff: 2026-06-13 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
xG (showing): Trollhättan 1.35 — Kristianstad 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	trelleborgs FF	24	15	6	3	51
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	13	7	5	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	14	3	8	45
4	Lund	25	11	8	6	41
5	AFC Malmo	25	11	8	6	41
6	Trollhättan	25	10	8	7	38
7	Rosengård	25	10	8	7	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	9	6	10	33
9	Tvååker	25	9	6	10	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	8	9	8	33
11	Eskilsminne	25	9	5	11	32
12	Olympic	24	9	3	12	30
13	Kristianstad	25	7	6	12	27
14	Laholm	25	7	4	14	25
15	Angelholms FF	25	4	9	12	21
16	Utsikten	25	2	6	17	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	trelleborgs FF	24	53	28	+25	51
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	49	35	+14	46
3	Lund	25	46	29	+17	41
4	Hässleholms IF	25	46	30	+16	45
5	AFC Malmo	25	45	35	+10	41
6	Trollhättan	25	42	37	+5	38
7	Rosengård	25	41	37	+4	38
8	Olympic	24	41	46	-5	30
9	Eskilsminne	25	40	44	-4	32
10	Tvååker	25	33	39	-6	33
11	Laholm	25	32	43	-11	25
12	Skövde AIK	25	31	38	-7	33
13	Angelholms FF	25	31	47	-16	21
14	Jonkopings Sodra	25	29	26	+3	33
15	Kristianstad	25	29	37	-8	27
16	Utsikten	25	23	60	-37	12