Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / PK-35 vs EIF

Prediction Audit: PK-35 vs EIF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

PK-35 PK-35
Sep 04, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
EIF EIF

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected PK-35 at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 PK-35 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices PK-35 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: PK-35 -16.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
PK-35 37.1% 54.0% -16.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.9% +5.8 pp Model Higher
EIF 33.3% 22.1% +11.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates PK-35's win probability at 54.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about PK-35 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned PK-35; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on PK-35 by 16.9 percentage points (54.0% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · PK-35 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · EIF 33.4%
    • xG · PK-35 1.34 — EIF 1.26
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · PK-35 1.76 · Draw 3.98 · EIF 4.29
    • Implied 1X2 · PK-35 54.0% · Draw 23.9% · EIF 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · PK-35 1.76 · Draw 3.98 · EIF 4.29
    • Implied 1X2 · PK-35 54.0% · Draw 23.9% · EIF 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5911091

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · PK-35 0–0 EIF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ykkösliiga
  • Fixture: PK-35 vs EIF
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): PK-35 1.34 — EIF 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 25 18 4 3 58
2 PK-35 25 14 7 4 49
3 Haka 25 13 5 7 44
4 JIPPO 25 11 8 6 41
5 JäPS 25 11 2 12 35
6 EIF 25 8 5 12 29
7 MP 25 8 5 12 29
8 KäPa 25 6 6 13 24
9 Klubi-04 25 5 8 12 23
10 SJK Akatemia 25 2 8 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 25 47 29 +18 44
2 Kooteepee 25 45 22 +23 58
3 PK-35 25 41 18 +23 49
4 JIPPO 25 32 21 +11 41
5 Klubi-04 25 30 37 -7 23
6 KäPa 25 30 45 -15 24
7 EIF 25 29 37 -8 29
8 MP 25 27 35 -8 29
9 JäPS 25 23 36 -13 35
10 SJK Akatemia 25 17 41 -24 14
Ykkösliiga Finland. Ykkösliiga Predictions