Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / PK-35 vs Klubi-04

Prediction Audit: PK-35 vs Klubi-04 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

PK-35 PK-35
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
Klubi-04 Klubi-04

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected PK-35 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 PK-35 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices PK-35 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: PK-35 -17.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
PK-35 36.6% 53.6% -17.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.4% +4.2 pp Aligned
Klubi-04 33.8% 21.0% +12.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates PK-35's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about PK-35 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned PK-35; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on PK-35 by 17.1 percentage points (53.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · PK-35 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Klubi-04 33.8%
    • xG · PK-35 1.33 — Klubi-04 1.27
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · PK-35 1.77 · Draw 3.74 · Klubi-04 4.53
    • Implied 1X2 · PK-35 53.6% · Draw 25.4% · Klubi-04 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · PK-35 1.77 · Draw 3.74 · Klubi-04 4.53
    • Implied 1X2 · PK-35 53.6% · Draw 25.4% · Klubi-04 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3357363

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · PK-35 1–1 Klubi-04
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ykkösliiga
  • Fixture: PK-35 vs Klubi-04
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): PK-35 1.33 — Klubi-04 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 25 18 4 3 58
2 PK-35 24 14 6 4 48
3 Haka 25 13 5 7 44
4 JIPPO 24 11 7 6 40
5 JäPS 24 11 2 11 35
6 MP 25 8 5 12 29
7 EIF 24 8 4 12 28
8 KäPa 25 6 6 13 24
9 Klubi-04 24 4 8 12 20
10 SJK Akatemia 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 25 47 29 +18 44
2 Kooteepee 25 45 22 +23 58
3 PK-35 24 41 18 +23 48
4 JIPPO 24 32 21 +11 40
5 KäPa 25 30 45 -15 24
6 EIF 24 28 36 -8 28
7 Klubi-04 24 28 36 -8 20
8 MP 25 27 35 -8 29
9 JäPS 24 22 34 -12 35
10 SJK Akatemia 24 16 40 -24 13