The model missed the final outcome (Haka win 3–0).
The model had projected JIPPO at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 JIPPO Haka ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haka | 31.9% | 44.9% | -12.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.6% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| JIPPO | 38.5% | 27.6% | +10.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Haka's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Haka win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Haka than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on JIPPO by 12.9 percentage points (51.4% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Haka 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · JIPPO 38.5%
- xG · Haka 1.23 — JIPPO 1.37
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Haka 2.12 · Draw 3.45 · JIPPO 3.45
- Implied 1X2 · Haka 44.9% · Draw 27.6% · JIPPO 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Haka 2.12 · Draw 3.45 · JIPPO 3.45
- Implied 1X2 · Haka 44.9% · Draw 27.6% · JIPPO 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Haka win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ykkösliiga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kooteepee | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 58 |
| 2 | PK-35 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 48 |
| 3 | Haka | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 44 |
| 4 | JIPPO | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | JäPS | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 35 |
| 6 | MP | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 7 | EIF | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 28 |
| 8 | KäPa | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 24 |
| 9 | Klubi-04 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| 10 | SJK Akatemia | 24 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haka | 25 | 47 | 29 | +18 | 44 |
| 2 | Kooteepee | 25 | 45 | 22 | +23 | 58 |
| 3 | PK-35 | 24 | 41 | 18 | +23 | 48 |
| 4 | JIPPO | 24 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 40 |
| 5 | KäPa | 25 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 24 |
| 6 | EIF | 24 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 28 |
| 7 | Klubi-04 | 24 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 20 |
| 8 | MP | 25 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | JäPS | 24 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 35 |
| 10 | SJK Akatemia | 24 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 13 |
