Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / KäPa vs Klubi-04

Prediction Audit: KäPa vs Klubi-04 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

KäPa KäPa
Jul 21, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 58%
Klubi-04 Klubi-04

AI correctly predicted the Klubi-04 win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Klubi-04 Klubi-04 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Klubi-04 win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 21, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · KäPa 1.29 — Klubi-04 1.31
  2. Jul 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Klubi-04 win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3138915

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Klubi-04 win · KäPa 0–2 Klubi-04
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ykkösliiga
  • Fixture: KäPa vs Klubi-04
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-21 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): KäPa 1.29 — Klubi-04 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 26 18 4 4 58
2 PK-35 26 14 7 5 49
3 Haka 26 14 5 7 47
4 JIPPO 26 12 8 6 44
5 JäPS 26 11 2 13 35
6 MP 26 8 6 12 30
7 EIF 26 8 5 13 29
8 Klubi-04 26 6 8 12 26
9 KäPa 26 6 7 13 25
10 SJK Akatemia 26 3 8 15 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 26 50 29 +21 47
2 Kooteepee 26 48 26 +22 58
3 PK-35 26 41 21 +20 49
4 Klubi-04 26 37 37 0 26
5 JIPPO 26 36 21 +15 44
6 KäPa 26 31 46 -15 25
7 EIF 26 29 44 -15 29
8 MP 26 28 36 -8 30
9 JäPS 26 23 40 -17 35
10 SJK Akatemia 26 21 44 -23 17
Ykkösliiga Finland. Ykkösliiga Predictions