Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / Klubi-04 vs Haka

Prediction Audit: Klubi-04 vs Haka Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Klubi-04 Klubi-04
Jul 17, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 68%
Haka Haka

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Klubi-04 at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Klubi-04 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Haka higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Haka -27.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Klubi-04 38.5% 18.5% +20.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.3% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Haka 31.9% 59.2% -27.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Haka's win probability at 59.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 27.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Klubi-04; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Klubi-04 by 27.3 percentage points (65.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Klubi-04 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Haka 31.9%
    • xG · Klubi-04 1.37 — Haka 1.23
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Klubi-04 5.13 · Draw 4.24 · Haka 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Klubi-04 18.5% · Draw 22.3% · Haka 59.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Klubi-04 5.13 · Draw 4.24 · Haka 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Klubi-04 18.5% · Draw 22.3% · Haka 59.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1489439

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds 2.6
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Klubi-04 2–2 Haka
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 38.5%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ykkösliiga
  • Fixture: Klubi-04 vs Haka
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Klubi-04 1.37 — Haka 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 25 18 4 3 58
2 PK-35 24 14 6 4 48
3 Haka 25 13 5 7 44
4 JIPPO 24 11 7 6 40
5 JäPS 24 11 2 11 35
6 MP 25 8 5 12 29
7 EIF 24 8 4 12 28
8 KäPa 25 6 6 13 24
9 Klubi-04 24 4 8 12 20
10 SJK Akatemia 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 25 47 29 +18 44
2 Kooteepee 25 45 22 +23 58
3 PK-35 24 41 18 +23 48
4 JIPPO 24 32 21 +11 40
5 KäPa 25 30 45 -15 24
6 EIF 24 28 36 -8 28
7 Klubi-04 24 28 36 -8 20
8 MP 25 27 35 -8 29
9 JäPS 24 22 34 -12 35
10 SJK Akatemia 24 16 40 -24 13