The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected KäPa at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 KäPa Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KäPa | 36.1% | 43.0% | -6.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| SJK Akatemia | 34.2% | 30.6% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates KäPa's win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on KäPa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned KäPa; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on KäPa by 6.9 percentage points (43.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · KäPa 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · SJK Akatemia 34.2%
- xG · KäPa 1.32 — SJK Akatemia 1.28
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · KäPa 2.21 · Draw 3.60 · SJK Akatemia 3.11
- Implied 1X2 · KäPa 43.0% · Draw 26.4% · SJK Akatemia 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · KäPa 2.21 · Draw 3.60 · SJK Akatemia 3.11
- Implied 1X2 · KäPa 43.0% · Draw 26.4% · SJK Akatemia 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ykkösliiga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kooteepee | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 58 |
| 2 | PK-35 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 48 |
| 3 | Haka | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 44 |
| 4 | JIPPO | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | JäPS | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 35 |
| 6 | MP | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 7 | EIF | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 28 |
| 8 | KäPa | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 24 |
| 9 | Klubi-04 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| 10 | SJK Akatemia | 24 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haka | 25 | 47 | 29 | +18 | 44 |
| 2 | Kooteepee | 25 | 45 | 22 | +23 | 58 |
| 3 | PK-35 | 24 | 41 | 18 | +23 | 48 |
| 4 | JIPPO | 24 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 40 |
| 5 | KäPa | 25 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 24 |
| 6 | EIF | 24 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 28 |
| 7 | Klubi-04 | 24 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 20 |
| 8 | MP | 25 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | JäPS | 24 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 35 |
| 10 | SJK Akatemia | 24 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 13 |
