The model missed the final outcome (Yangon United win 0–4).
The model had projected Hantharwady United at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Hantharwady United Yangon United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Hantharwady United; match finished Yangon United
Market lesson
The full-time result was Yangon United win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Hantharwady United 1.49 — Yangon United 1.23
-
Mar 04, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Yangon United win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
2.31
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Yangon United win · Hantharwady United 0–4 Yangon United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 43.2%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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National League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yangon United | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 60 |
| 2 | Shan United | 22 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 58 |
| 3 | Dagon | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | I.S.P.E | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 5 | Hantharwady United | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 |
| 6 | Sagaing United | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 |
| 7 | Yadanarbon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Ayeyawady United | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | Thitsar Arman | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 24 |
| 10 | Dagon Port | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 11 | Rakhine United | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| 12 | Yarmanya United | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yangon United | 23 | 73 | 7 | +66 | 60 |
| 2 | Shan United | 22 | 66 | 10 | +56 | 58 |
| 3 | Dagon Port | 22 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 22 |
| 4 | Dagon | 22 | 39 | 30 | +9 | 39 |
| 5 | Sagaing United | 22 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 28 |
| 6 | Yadanarbon | 22 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | Thitsar Arman | 22 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 24 |
| 8 | I.S.P.E | 23 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 31 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 22 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 28 |
| 10 | Rakhine United | 22 | 28 | 54 | -26 | 19 |
| 11 | Ayeyawady United | 22 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 26 |
| 12 | Yarmanya United | 22 | 17 | 80 | -63 | 6 |
