Predictions / Football / Sweden. Elitettan / Göteborg vs Alingsås W

Prediction Audit: Göteborg vs Alingsås W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Göteborg Göteborg
Oct 04, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 74%
Alingsås W Alingsås W

The model missed the final outcome (Göteborg win 2–1).

The model had projected Alingsås W at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Alingsås W Göteborg ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Göteborg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Göteborg -33.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Göteborg 32.9% 66.3% -33.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.2% +10.4 pp Model Edge
Alingsås W 37.5% 14.5% +23.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Göteborg's win probability at 66.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 33.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Göteborg win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Alingsås W by 33.5 percentage points (71.0% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 04, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Göteborg 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Alingsås W 37.6%
    • xG · Göteborg 1.25 — Alingsås W 1.35
  2. Oct 04, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Göteborg 1.34 · Draw 4.63 · Alingsås W 6.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Göteborg 66.3% · Draw 19.2% · Alingsås W 14.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 04, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Göteborg 1.34 · Draw 4.63 · Alingsås W 6.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Göteborg 66.3% · Draw 19.2% · Alingsås W 14.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 04, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Göteborg win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (33 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11662079

Closing Odds 1.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Göteborg win · Göteborg 2–1 Alingsås W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Alingsås W; market prices Göteborg instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Göteborg 1.25 xG vs Alingsås W 1.35 → Alingsås W 37.5%
  • Market: Göteborg ~14.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Elitettan Elitettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Elfsborg 20 13 6 1 45
2 KIF Örebro 20 14 2 4 44
3 Göteborg 20 12 6 2 42
4 Linköping 21 13 3 5 42
5 Umeå 20 10 4 6 34
6 Trelleborg W 20 9 5 6 32
7 Husqvarna W 20 8 4 8 28
8 Jitex W 21 7 6 8 27
9 Örebro Söder W 20 6 5 9 23
10 Alingsås W 20 4 7 9 19
11 Enskede W 20 5 4 11 19
12 Gamla Upsala W 20 4 5 11 17
13 Sandviken W 20 2 5 13 11
14 Häcken II 20 2 2 16 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Göteborg 20 50 23 +27 42
2 KIF Örebro 20 43 25 +18 44
3 Linköping 21 39 28 +11 42
4 Elfsborg 20 37 10 +27 45
5 Umeå 20 35 24 +11 34
6 Trelleborg W 20 28 27 +1 32
7 Husqvarna W 20 28 30 -2 28
8 Jitex W 21 28 30 -2 27
9 Enskede W 20 27 38 -11 19
10 Örebro Söder W 20 23 30 -7 23
11 Gamla Upsala W 20 21 33 -12 17
12 Häcken II 20 20 42 -22 8
13 Sandviken W 20 20 49 -29 11
14 Alingsås W 20 17 27 -10 19