Predictions / Football / Sweden. Elitettan / Alingsås W vs Trelleborg W

Prediction Audit: Alingsås W vs Trelleborg W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alingsås W Alingsås W
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Trelleborg W Trelleborg W

The model missed the final outcome (Trelleborg W win 0–1).

The model had projected Alingsås W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Alingsås W Trelleborg W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Trelleborg W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Trelleborg W -12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Alingsås W 36.1% 29.9% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.6% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Trelleborg W 34.2% 46.5% -12.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Trelleborg W's win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Trelleborg W win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Trelleborg W than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Alingsås W; match finished Trelleborg W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Alingsås W by 12.3 percentage points (48.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Alingsås W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Trelleborg W 34.2%
    • xG · Alingsås W 1.32 — Trelleborg W 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Alingsås W 2.97 · Draw 3.77 · Trelleborg W 1.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Alingsås W 29.9% · Draw 23.6% · Trelleborg W 46.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Alingsås W 2.97 · Draw 3.77 · Trelleborg W 1.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Alingsås W 29.9% · Draw 23.6% · Trelleborg W 46.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Trelleborg W win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10095148

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Trelleborg W win · Alingsås W 0–1 Trelleborg W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Elitettan
  • Fixture: Alingsås W vs Trelleborg W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Alingsås W 1.32 — Trelleborg W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.6% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Elitettan Elitettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Elfsborg 20 13 6 1 45
2 KIF Örebro 20 14 2 4 44
3 Göteborg 20 12 6 2 42
4 Linköping 20 13 3 4 42
5 Umeå 20 10 4 6 34
6 Trelleborg W 20 9 5 6 32
7 Husqvarna W 20 8 4 8 28
8 Jitex W 20 6 6 8 24
9 Örebro Söder W 20 6 5 9 23
10 Alingsås W 20 4 7 9 19
11 Enskede W 20 5 4 11 19
12 Gamla Upsala W 20 4 5 11 17
13 Sandviken W 20 2 5 13 11
14 Häcken II 20 2 2 16 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Göteborg 20 50 23 +27 42
2 KIF Örebro 20 43 25 +18 44
3 Linköping 20 38 26 +12 42
4 Elfsborg 20 37 10 +27 45
5 Umeå 20 35 24 +11 34
6 Trelleborg W 20 28 27 +1 32
7 Husqvarna W 20 28 30 -2 28
8 Enskede W 20 27 38 -11 19
9 Jitex W 20 26 29 -3 24
10 Örebro Söder W 20 23 30 -7 23
11 Gamla Upsala W 20 21 33 -12 17
12 Häcken II 20 20 42 -22 8
13 Sandviken W 20 20 49 -29 11
14 Alingsås W 20 17 27 -10 19
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