AI correctly predicted the Göteborg win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Göteborg Göteborg ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Göteborg | 36.1% | 75.6% | -39.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 14.8% | +14.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Husqvarna W | 34.2% | 9.6% | +24.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Göteborg's win probability at 75.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 39.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Göteborg win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Göteborg higher (75.6% vs model 36.1%, 39.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Göteborg win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Göteborg 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Husqvarna W 34.2%
- xG · Göteborg 1.32 — Husqvarna W 1.28
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Göteborg 1.17 · Draw 5.98 · Husqvarna W 9.25
- Implied 1X2 · Göteborg 75.6% · Draw 14.8% · Husqvarna W 9.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Göteborg 1.17 · Draw 5.98 · Husqvarna W 9.25
- Implied 1X2 · Göteborg 75.6% · Draw 14.8% · Husqvarna W 9.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Göteborg win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (40 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Elitettan — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elfsborg | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 45 |
| 2 | KIF Örebro | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 44 |
| 3 | Göteborg | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 42 |
| 4 | Linköping | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 42 |
| 5 | Umeå | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | Trelleborg W | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 |
| 7 | Husqvarna W | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 28 |
| 8 | Jitex W | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 9 | Örebro Söder W | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 |
| 10 | Alingsås W | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 19 |
| 11 | Enskede W | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 12 | Gamla Upsala W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 17 |
| 13 | Sandviken W | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
| 14 | Häcken II | 20 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Göteborg | 20 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 42 |
| 2 | KIF Örebro | 20 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 44 |
| 3 | Linköping | 20 | 38 | 26 | +12 | 42 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 20 | 37 | 10 | +27 | 45 |
| 5 | Umeå | 20 | 35 | 24 | +11 | 34 |
| 6 | Trelleborg W | 20 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 32 |
| 7 | Husqvarna W | 20 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 28 |
| 8 | Enskede W | 20 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 19 |
| 9 | Jitex W | 20 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Örebro Söder W | 20 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 23 |
| 11 | Gamla Upsala W | 20 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 17 |
| 12 | Häcken II | 20 | 20 | 42 | -22 | 8 |
| 13 | Sandviken W | 20 | 20 | 49 | -29 | 11 |
| 14 | Alingsås W | 20 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 19 |
