The model missed the final outcome (Cerezo Osaka W win 0–1).
The model had projected JEF United W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 JEF United W Cerezo Osaka W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Cerezo Osaka W win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · JEF United W 1.45 — Cerezo Osaka W 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 04:03 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cerezo Osaka W win · 0–1
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cerezo Osaka W win · JEF United W 0–1 Cerezo Osaka W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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WE League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INAC Kobe Leonessa W | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Urawa Reds W | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 44 |
| 3 | Tokyo Verdy Beleza W | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 41 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima W | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 38 |
| 5 | Vegalta Sendai | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | Albirex Niigata W | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 7 | Omiya Ardija Ventus W | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Nojima Stella W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | JEF United W | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 10 | Cerezo Osaka W | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 11 | Elfen Saitama W | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 18 |
| 12 | Parceiro Nagano W | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INAC Kobe Leonessa W | 22 | 50 | 13 | +37 | 53 |
| 2 | Urawa Reds W | 22 | 46 | 15 | +31 | 44 |
| 3 | Tokyo Verdy Beleza W | 22 | 44 | 23 | +21 | 41 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima W | 22 | 30 | 20 | +10 | 38 |
| 5 | Nojima Stella W | 22 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 27 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija Ventus W | 22 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 27 |
| 7 | Albirex Niigata W | 22 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 31 |
| 8 | Vegalta Sendai | 22 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 34 |
| 9 | Cerezo Osaka W | 22 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 21 |
| 10 | Elfen Saitama W | 22 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 18 |
| 11 | JEF United W | 22 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 24 |
| 12 | Parceiro Nagano W | 22 | 16 | 55 | -39 | 10 |
