The model missed the final outcome (Victoriano Arenas win 0–1).
The model had projected Centro Español at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Centro Español Victoriano Arenas ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centro Español | 42.4% | 45.1% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 32.8% | -3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Victoriano Arenas | 28.4% | 22.1% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Victoriano Arenas's win probability at 28.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.1%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Victoriano Arenas win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Victoriano Arenas.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Centro Español; match finished Victoriano Arenas
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Centro Español by 6.3 percentage points (36.1% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Centro Español 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Victoriano Arenas 28.4%
- xG · Centro Español 1.45 — Victoriano Arenas 1.15
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 17:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Centro Español 1.97 · Draw 2.71 · Victoriano Arenas 4.03
- Implied 1X2 · Centro Español 45.1% · Draw 32.8% · Victoriano Arenas 22.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Centro Español 1.97 · Draw 2.71 · Victoriano Arenas 4.03
- Implied 1X2 · Centro Español 45.1% · Draw 32.8% · Victoriano Arenas 22.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Victoriano Arenas win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 48 |
| 2 | Lugano | 30 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Estrella Del Sur | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Mercedes | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Centro Español | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 30 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 24 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 29 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 41 |
| 3 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 42 |
| 4 | Lugano | 30 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 46 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 30 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 30 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 44 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 30 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | Argentino Rosario | 30 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 10 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 28 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 41 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 29 |
