Predictions / Football / Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana / Excursionistas vs Real Pilar

Prediction Audit: Excursionistas vs Real Pilar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Excursionistas Excursionistas
Sep 25, 2026 - 23:00
3 1.18
0 1.42
xG Accuracy: 41%
Real Pilar Real Pilar

The model missed the final outcome (Excursionistas win 3–0).

The model had projected Real Pilar at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Pilar Excursionistas ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Real Pilar considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Real Pilar +16.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Excursionistas 29.7% 44.8% -15.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 30.4% -1.0 pp Aligned
Real Pilar 40.9% 24.9% +16.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Real Pilar's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.9%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Excursionistas win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Real Pilar.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Real Pilar; match finished Excursionistas

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Real Pilar by 16.1 percentage points (24.8% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Excursionistas 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Real Pilar 41.0%
    • xG · Excursionistas 1.18 — Real Pilar 1.42
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Excursionistas 2.02 · Draw 2.98 · Real Pilar 3.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Excursionistas 44.8% · Draw 30.4% · Real Pilar 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Excursionistas 2.02 · Draw 2.98 · Real Pilar 3.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Excursionistas 44.8% · Draw 30.4% · Real Pilar 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Excursionistas win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10119481

Closing Odds 3.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Excursionistas win · Excursionistas 3–0 Real Pilar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B Metropolitana
  • Fixture: Excursionistas vs Real Pilar
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Excursionistas 1.18 — Real Pilar 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 44.9% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +13.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Metropolitana Primera B Metropolitana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Excursionistas 37 22 8 7 74
2 Arsenal Sarandi 37 19 12 6 69
3 Talleres Remedios 37 19 10 8 67
4 Villa Dalmine 36 17 12 7 63
5 Deportivo Camioneros 37 17 12 8 63
6 Sportivo Italiano 36 16 11 9 59
7 Real Pilar 37 16 10 11 58
8 Deportivo Armenio 37 16 9 12 57
9 Comunicaciones 36 14 11 11 53
10 Deportivo Laferrere 36 12 12 12 48
11 San Martín Burzaco 37 11 14 12 47
12 Dock Sud 36 10 14 12 44
13 Villa San Carlos 37 10 14 13 44
14 Argentino de Merlo 37 11 11 15 44
15 Deportivo Merlo 37 10 13 14 43
16 Argentino Quilmes 36 9 14 13 41
17 Defensores Unidos 37 9 13 15 40
18 Liniers 37 9 13 15 40
19 Flandria 36 10 8 18 38
20 Brown DE Adrogue 37 8 14 15 38
21 UAI Urquiza 36 4 19 13 31
22 Ituzaingó 37 1 12 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Excursionistas 37 59 29 +30 74
2 Arsenal Sarandi 37 50 24 +26 69
3 Deportivo Laferrere 36 43 47 -4 48
4 Deportivo Camioneros 37 42 27 +15 63
5 Sportivo Italiano 36 41 27 +14 59
6 Talleres Remedios 37 40 21 +19 67
7 Real Pilar 37 40 38 +2 58
8 Deportivo Armenio 37 39 38 +1 57
9 Villa Dalmine 36 38 21 +17 63
10 Comunicaciones 36 38 33 +5 53
11 Dock Sud 36 38 38 0 44
12 San Martín Burzaco 37 37 40 -3 47
13 Villa San Carlos 37 36 39 -3 44
14 Deportivo Merlo 37 36 51 -15 43
15 Argentino de Merlo 37 32 37 -5 44
16 Defensores Unidos 37 32 38 -6 40
17 Flandria 36 32 45 -13 38
18 Liniers 37 30 39 -9 40
19 Argentino Quilmes 36 29 36 -7 41
20 Brown DE Adrogue 37 24 37 -13 38
21 Ituzaingó 37 23 59 -36 15
22 UAI Urquiza 36 18 33 -15 31
Primera B Metropolitana Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana Predictions