Prediction Audit: Dock Sud vs Liniers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dock Sud

Jul 25, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 85%

Liniers

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Liniers at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Liniers Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Dock Sud	32.9%	43.3%	-10.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	32.2%	-2.6 pp	Aligned
Liniers	37.5%	24.5%	+13.0 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Liniers's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.5%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Liniers.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Liniers; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Liniers by 13.0 percentage points (24.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 25, 2026 · 22:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dock Sud 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Liniers 37.6%
- xG · Dock Sud 1.25 — Liniers 1.35
Jul 25, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dock Sud 2.09 · Draw 2.81 · Liniers 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Dock Sud 43.3% · Draw 32.2% · Liniers 24.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 25, 2026 · 16:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dock Sud 2.09 · Draw 2.81 · Liniers 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Dock Sud 43.3% · Draw 32.2% · Liniers 24.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 25, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456455

Closing Odds 3.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Dock Sud 1–1 Liniers

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera B Metropolitana
Fixture: Dock Sud vs Liniers
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Dock Sud 1.25 — Liniers 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Metropolitana — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	74
2	Arsenal Sarandi	37	19	12	6	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	67
4	Villa Dalmine	36	17	12	7	63
5	Deportivo Camioneros	37	17	12	8	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	36	16	11	9	59
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	57
9	Comunicaciones	36	14	11	11	53
10	Deportivo Laferrere	36	12	12	12	48
11	San Martín Burzaco	37	11	14	12	47
12	Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	44
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	44
14	Argentino de Merlo	37	11	11	15	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	36	9	14	13	41
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	40
18	Liniers	37	9	13	15	40
19	Flandria	36	10	8	18	38
20	Brown DE Adrogue	37	8	14	15	38
21	UAI Urquiza	36	4	19	13	31
22	Ituzaingó	37	1	12	24	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Excursionistas	37	59	29	+30	74
2	Arsenal Sarandi	37	50	24	+26	69
3	Deportivo Laferrere	36	43	47	-4	48
4	Deportivo Camioneros	37	42	27	+15	63
5	Sportivo Italiano	36	41	27	+14	59
6	Talleres Remedios	37	40	21	+19	67
7	Real Pilar	37	40	38	+2	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	39	38	+1	57
9	Villa Dalmine	36	38	21	+17	63
10	Comunicaciones	36	38	33	+5	53
11	Dock Sud	36	38	38	0	44
12	San Martín Burzaco	37	37	40	-3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	37	36	39	-3	44
14	Deportivo Merlo	37	36	51	-15	43
15	Argentino de Merlo	37	32	37	-5	44
16	Defensores Unidos	37	32	38	-6	40
17	Flandria	36	32	45	-13	38
18	Liniers	37	30	39	-9	40
19	Argentino Quilmes	36	29	36	-7	41
20	Brown DE Adrogue	37	24	37	-13	38
21	Ituzaingó	37	23	59	-36	15
22	UAI Urquiza	36	18	33	-15	31