Predictions / Football / Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana / Ituzaingó vs San Martín Burzaco

Prediction Audit: Ituzaingó vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ituzaingó Ituzaingó
Jul 14, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
San Martín Burzaco San Martín Burzaco

The model missed the final outcome (San Martín Burzaco win 1–2).

The model had projected Ituzaingó at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ituzaingó San Martín Burzaco ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Ituzaingó considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Ituzaingó +9.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ituzaingó 36.1% 27.0% +9.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 31.1% -1.5 pp Aligned
San Martín Burzaco 34.2% 41.9% -7.6 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Ituzaingó's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.0%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was San Martín Burzaco win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ituzaingó.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ituzaingó; match finished San Martín Burzaco

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ituzaingó by 9.1 percentage points (27.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 14, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ituzaingó 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · San Martín Burzaco 34.2%
    • xG · Ituzaingó 1.32 — San Martín Burzaco 1.28
  2. Jul 14, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ituzaingó 3.33 · Draw 2.89 · San Martín Burzaco 2.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Ituzaingó 27.0% · Draw 31.1% · San Martín Burzaco 41.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 14, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ituzaingó 3.33 · Draw 2.89 · San Martín Burzaco 2.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Ituzaingó 27.0% · Draw 31.1% · San Martín Burzaco 41.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 14, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result San Martín Burzaco win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 10:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2599894

Closing Odds 3.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result San Martín Burzaco win · Ituzaingó 1–2 San Martín Burzaco
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B Metropolitana
  • Fixture: Ituzaingó vs San Martín Burzaco
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-14 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Ituzaingó 1.32 — San Martín Burzaco 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Metropolitana Primera B Metropolitana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Excursionistas 37 22 8 7 74
2 Arsenal Sarandi 37 19 12 6 69
3 Talleres Remedios 37 19 10 8 67
4 Villa Dalmine 37 17 13 7 64
5 Deportivo Camioneros 37 17 12 8 63
6 Sportivo Italiano 37 17 11 9 62
7 Real Pilar 37 16 10 11 58
8 Deportivo Armenio 37 16 9 12 57
9 Comunicaciones 37 14 12 11 54
10 Deportivo Laferrere 37 12 12 13 48
11 Dock Sud 37 11 14 12 47
12 San Martín Burzaco 37 11 14 12 47
13 Villa San Carlos 37 10 14 13 44
14 Argentino de Merlo 37 11 11 15 44
15 Deportivo Merlo 37 10 13 14 43
16 Argentino Quilmes 37 9 15 13 42
17 Defensores Unidos 37 9 13 15 40
18 Liniers 37 9 13 15 40
19 Brown DE Adrogue 37 8 14 15 38
20 Flandria 37 10 8 19 38
21 UAI Urquiza 37 4 20 13 32
22 Ituzaingó 37 1 12 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Excursionistas 37 59 29 +30 74
2 Arsenal Sarandi 37 50 24 +26 69
3 Deportivo Laferrere 37 44 49 -5 48
4 Sportivo Italiano 37 43 28 +15 62
5 Deportivo Camioneros 37 42 27 +15 63
6 Talleres Remedios 37 40 21 +19 67
7 Real Pilar 37 40 38 +2 58
8 Dock Sud 37 40 39 +1 47
9 Deportivo Armenio 37 39 38 +1 57
10 Villa Dalmine 37 38 21 +17 64
11 Comunicaciones 37 38 33 +5 54
12 San Martín Burzaco 37 37 40 -3 47
13 Villa San Carlos 37 36 39 -3 44
14 Deportivo Merlo 37 36 51 -15 43
15 Flandria 37 33 47 -14 38
16 Argentino de Merlo 37 32 37 -5 44
17 Defensores Unidos 37 32 38 -6 40
18 Liniers 37 30 39 -9 40
19 Argentino Quilmes 37 29 36 -7 42
20 Brown DE Adrogue 37 24 37 -13 38
21 Ituzaingó 37 23 59 -36 15
22 UAI Urquiza 37 18 33 -15 32
Primera B Metropolitana Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana Predictions