Predictions / Football / Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana / Dock Sud vs Excursionistas

Prediction Audit: Dock Sud vs Excursionistas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dock Sud Dock Sud
Jul 04, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
Excursionistas Excursionistas

The model missed the final outcome (Dock Sud win 3–1).

The model had projected Excursionistas at 39.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Excursionistas Dock Sud ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Dock Sud considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Dock Sud +6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dock Sud 30.5% 24.3% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 30.3% 31.2% -0.8 pp Aligned
Excursionistas 39.2% 44.5% -5.3 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Dock Sud's win probability at 30.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.3%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dock Sud win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dock Sud.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Excursionistas; match finished Dock Sud

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Excursionistas by 6.2 percentage points (33.0% vs model 39.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 04, 2026 · 21:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dock Sud 30.5% · Draw 30.3% · Excursionistas 39.2%
    • xG · Dock Sud 1.26 — Excursionistas 1.34
  2. Jul 04, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dock Sud 3.72 · Draw 2.90 · Excursionistas 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Dock Sud 24.3% · Draw 31.2% · Excursionistas 44.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 04, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dock Sud 3.72 · Draw 2.90 · Excursionistas 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Dock Sud 24.3% · Draw 31.2% · Excursionistas 44.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 04, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dock Sud win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1482192

Closing Odds 3.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dock Sud win · Dock Sud 3–1 Excursionistas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera B Metropolitana
  • Fixture: Dock Sud vs Excursionistas
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Dock Sud 1.26 — Excursionistas 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Metropolitana Primera B Metropolitana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Excursionistas 38 22 8 8 74
2 Arsenal Sarandi 38 19 12 7 69
3 Talleres Remedios 37 19 10 8 67
4 Villa Dalmine 38 17 13 8 64
5 Deportivo Camioneros 38 17 12 9 63
6 Sportivo Italiano 37 17 11 9 62
7 Real Pilar 38 17 10 11 61
8 Deportivo Armenio 38 17 9 12 60
9 Comunicaciones 37 14 12 11 54
10 Deportivo Laferrere 38 13 12 13 51
11 San Martín Burzaco 38 12 14 12 50
12 Dock Sud 38 11 14 13 47
13 Villa San Carlos 38 11 14 13 47
14 Argentino de Merlo 38 11 11 16 44
15 Argentino Quilmes 38 9 16 13 43
16 Liniers 38 10 13 15 43
17 Deportivo Merlo 37 10 13 14 43
18 Defensores Unidos 38 9 14 15 41
19 Brown DE Adrogue 37 8 14 15 38
20 Flandria 37 10 8 19 38
21 UAI Urquiza 37 4 20 13 32
22 Ituzaingó 37 1 12 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Excursionistas 38 59 30 +29 74
2 Arsenal Sarandi 38 50 25 +25 69
3 Deportivo Laferrere 38 46 50 -4 51
4 Sportivo Italiano 37 43 28 +15 62
5 Deportivo Camioneros 38 43 29 +14 63
6 Real Pilar 38 42 38 +4 61
7 Deportivo Armenio 38 42 38 +4 60
8 Talleres Remedios 37 40 21 +19 67
9 Dock Sud 38 40 42 -2 47
10 San Martín Burzaco 38 39 41 -2 50
11 Villa Dalmine 38 38 23 +15 64
12 Comunicaciones 37 38 33 +5 54
13 Villa San Carlos 38 37 39 -2 47
14 Deportivo Merlo 37 36 51 -15 43
15 Argentino de Merlo 38 33 39 -6 44
16 Defensores Unidos 38 33 39 -6 41
17 Flandria 37 33 47 -14 38
18 Liniers 38 31 39 -8 43
19 Argentino Quilmes 38 30 37 -7 43
20 Brown DE Adrogue 37 24 37 -13 38
21 Ituzaingó 37 23 59 -36 15
22 UAI Urquiza 37 18 33 -15 32
Primera B Metropolitana Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana Predictions