The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Achuapa at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Achuapa Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achuapa | 41.8% | 16.1% | +25.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 23.7% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Antigua GFC | 32.6% | 60.2% | -27.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Antigua GFC's win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 27.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Achuapa; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Achuapa by 27.6 percentage points (69.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Achuapa 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Antigua GFC 32.6%
- xG · Achuapa 1.45 — Antigua GFC 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Achuapa 5.75 · Draw 3.92 · Antigua GFC 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · Achuapa 16.1% · Draw 23.7% · Antigua GFC 60.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Achuapa 5.75 · Draw 3.92 · Antigua GFC 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · Achuapa 16.1% · Draw 23.7% · Antigua GFC 60.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Apr 26, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (28 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Nacional — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xelajú | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 39 |
| 2 | Municipal | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 3 | Mixco | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 4 | Comunicaciones | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 35 |
| 5 | Antigua GFC | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | Cobán Imperial | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 32 |
| 7 | Guastatoya | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 8 | Marquense | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Mictlán | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 11 | Aurora | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 20 |
| 12 | Achuapa | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xelajú | 22 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 | Antigua GFC | 22 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 34 |
| 3 | Municipal | 22 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 38 |
| 4 | Mixco | 22 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 |
| 5 | Guastatoya | 22 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 31 |
| 6 | Cobán Imperial | 22 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 | Comunicaciones | 22 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 35 |
| 8 | Marquense | 22 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 | Mictlán | 22 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 22 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 | Achuapa | 22 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 19 |
| 12 | Aurora | 22 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 20 |
