The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Guastatoya at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Guastatoya Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Guastatoya; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Guastatoya 1.49 — Malacateco 1.23
-
Feb 15, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Guastatoya 1–1 Malacateco
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Nacional — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xelajú | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 39 |
| 2 | Municipal | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 3 | Mixco | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 4 | Comunicaciones | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 35 |
| 5 | Antigua GFC | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | Cobán Imperial | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 32 |
| 7 | Guastatoya | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 8 | Marquense | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Mictlán | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 11 | Aurora | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 20 |
| 12 | Achuapa | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xelajú | 22 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 | Antigua GFC | 22 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 34 |
| 3 | Municipal | 22 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 38 |
| 4 | Mixco | 22 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 |
| 5 | Guastatoya | 22 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 31 |
| 6 | Cobán Imperial | 22 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 | Comunicaciones | 22 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 35 |
| 8 | Marquense | 22 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 | Mictlán | 22 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 22 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 | Achuapa | 22 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 19 |
| 12 | Aurora | 22 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 20 |
