Predictions / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Temperley vs Colegiales

Prediction Audit: Temperley vs Colegiales Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Temperley Temperley
Sep 06, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Colegiales Colegiales

The model missed the final outcome (Temperley win 3–1).

The model had projected Colegiales at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Colegiales Temperley ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Colegiales considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Colegiales +10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Temperley 34.7% 39.5% -4.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 34.9% -5.3 pp Market Higher
Colegiales 35.6% 25.6% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Colegiales's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.6%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Temperley win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Colegiales.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Colegiales; match finished Temperley
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Colegiales by 10.1 percentage points (25.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Temperley 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Colegiales 35.6%
    • xG · Temperley 1.29 — Colegiales 1.31
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Temperley 2.41 · Draw 2.73 · Colegiales 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Temperley 39.5% · Draw 34.9% · Colegiales 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Temperley 2.41 · Draw 2.73 · Colegiales 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Temperley 39.5% · Draw 34.9% · Colegiales 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Temperley win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6168072

Closing Odds 3.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Temperley win · Temperley 3–1 Colegiales
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Temperley vs Colegiales
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Temperley 1.29 — Colegiales 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 37.1% · Probability edge: +17.4 pts · Est. EV: +42.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 18 7 6 61
2 Deportivo Moron 31 16 7 8 55
3 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 53
4 Deportivo Madryn 31 13 11 7 50
5 Colon Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 45
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 10 12 9 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 36
11 Defensores De Belgrano 31 8 12 11 36
12 Racing Cordoba 31 9 9 13 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 32
16 Atletico Mitre 31 6 14 11 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 31 49 31 +18 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 31 44 28 +16 50
3 Godoy Cruz 31 40 28 +12 53
4 Colon Santa Fe 31 38 25 +13 49
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 36 25 +11 61
6 CA Estudiantes 31 29 26 +3 45
7 Chaco For Ever 31 28 31 -3 36
8 Racing Cordoba 31 28 38 -10 36
9 Atletico Mitre 31 27 39 -12 32
10 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 26 28 -2 42
11 San Telmo 31 25 34 -9 34
12 San Miguel 31 25 36 -11 31
13 Los Andes 31 24 21 +3 40
14 Almirante Brown 31 23 18 +5 46
15 Defensores De Belgrano 31 23 27 -4 36
16 Acassuso 31 22 34 -12 29
17 Central Norte 31 19 28 -9 32
18 All Boys 31 17 26 -9 33
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