Prediction Audit: Quilmes vs San Telmo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Quilmes

Aug 15, 2026 - 22:00

3 1.37

0 1.23

xG Accuracy: 46%

San Telmo

AI correctly predicted the Quilmes win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Quilmes Quilmes ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Quilmes	38.5%	59.2%	-20.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	25.6%	+4.0 pp	Aligned
San Telmo	31.9%	15.1%	+16.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Quilmes's win probability at 59.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Quilmes win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Quilmes higher (59.2% vs model 38.5%, 20.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Quilmes win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Quilmes 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · San Telmo 31.9%
- xG · Quilmes 1.37 — San Telmo 1.23
Aug 15, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Quilmes 1.60 · Draw 3.70 · San Telmo 6.26
- Implied 1X2 · Quilmes 59.2% · Draw 25.6% · San Telmo 15.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Quilmes 1.60 · Draw 3.70 · San Telmo 6.26
- Implied 1X2 · Quilmes 59.2% · Draw 25.6% · San Telmo 15.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Quilmes win · 3–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (21 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3369331

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Quilmes win · Quilmes 3–0 San Telmo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Nacional
Fixture: Quilmes vs San Telmo
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Quilmes 1.37 — San Telmo 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	31	18	7	6	61
2	Deportivo Moron	31	16	7	8	55
3	Godoy Cruz	31	15	8	8	53
4	Deportivo Madryn	31	13	11	7	50
5	Colon Santa Fe	31	13	10	8	49
6	Almirante Brown	31	12	10	9	46
7	CA Estudiantes	31	12	9	10	45
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	31	10	12	9	42
9	Los Andes	31	9	13	9	40
10	Chaco For Ever	31	9	9	13	36
11	Defensores De Belgrano	31	8	12	11	36
12	Racing Cordoba	31	9	9	13	36
13	San Telmo	31	8	10	13	34
14	All Boys	31	6	15	10	33
15	Central Norte	31	6	14	11	32
16	Atletico Mitre	31	6	14	11	32
17	San Miguel	31	6	13	12	31
18	Acassuso	31	7	8	16	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	31	49	31	+18	55
2	Deportivo Madryn	31	44	28	+16	50
3	Godoy Cruz	31	40	28	+12	53
4	Colon Santa Fe	31	38	25	+13	49
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	31	36	25	+11	61
6	CA Estudiantes	31	29	26	+3	45
7	Chaco For Ever	31	28	31	-3	36
8	Racing Cordoba	31	28	38	-10	36
9	Atletico Mitre	31	27	39	-12	32
10	Ciudad de Bolívar	31	26	28	-2	42
11	San Telmo	31	25	34	-9	34
12	San Miguel	31	25	36	-11	31
13	Los Andes	31	24	21	+3	40
14	Almirante Brown	31	23	18	+5	46
15	Defensores De Belgrano	31	23	27	-4	36
16	Acassuso	31	22	34	-12	29
17	Central Norte	31	19	28	-9	32
18	All Boys	31	17	26	-9	33