Predictions / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Los Andes vs Ferro Carril Oeste

Prediction Audit: Los Andes vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Los Andes Los Andes
Aug 09, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 79%
Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste

AI correctly predicted the Ferro Carril Oeste win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Ferro Carril Oeste considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Ferro Carril Oeste +7.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Los Andes 31.9% 34.9% -3.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 33.9% -4.4 pp Aligned
Ferro Carril Oeste 38.5% 31.1% +7.3 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Ferro Carril Oeste's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.1%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ferro Carril Oeste win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ferro Carril Oeste.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ferro Carril Oeste more conservatively (31.2% vs model 38.5%, 7.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ferro Carril Oeste win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Los Andes 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Ferro Carril Oeste 38.5%
    • xG · Los Andes 1.23 — Ferro Carril Oeste 1.37
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Los Andes 2.73 · Draw 2.81 · Ferro Carril Oeste 3.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Los Andes 34.9% · Draw 33.9% · Ferro Carril Oeste 31.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Los Andes 2.73 · Draw 2.81 · Ferro Carril Oeste 3.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Los Andes 34.9% · Draw 33.9% · Ferro Carril Oeste 31.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ferro Carril Oeste win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2829896

Closing Odds 3.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ferro Carril Oeste win · Los Andes 1–2 Ferro Carril Oeste
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Los Andes vs Ferro Carril Oeste
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Los Andes 1.23 — Ferro Carril Oeste 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 18 7 6 61
2 Deportivo Moron 31 16 7 8 55
3 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 53
4 Deportivo Madryn 31 13 11 7 50
5 Colon Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 46
7 CA Estudiantes 31 12 9 10 45
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 10 12 9 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 36
11 Defensores De Belgrano 31 8 12 11 36
12 Racing Cordoba 31 9 9 13 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 32
16 Atletico Mitre 31 6 14 11 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 31 49 31 +18 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 31 44 28 +16 50
3 Godoy Cruz 31 40 28 +12 53
4 Colon Santa Fe 31 38 25 +13 49
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 36 25 +11 61
6 CA Estudiantes 31 29 26 +3 45
7 Chaco For Ever 31 28 31 -3 36
8 Racing Cordoba 31 28 38 -10 36
9 Atletico Mitre 31 27 39 -12 32
10 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 26 28 -2 42
11 San Telmo 31 25 34 -9 34
12 San Miguel 31 25 36 -11 31
13 Los Andes 31 24 21 +3 40
14 Almirante Brown 31 23 18 +5 46
15 Defensores De Belgrano 31 23 27 -4 36
16 Acassuso 31 22 34 -12 29
17 Central Norte 31 19 28 -9 32
18 All Boys 31 17 26 -9 33
Primera Nacional Argentina. Primera Nacional Predictions