Prediction Audit: Atlanta vs Temperley Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atlanta

Aug 09, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 64%

Temperley

The model missed the final outcome (Atlanta win 1–0).

The model had projected Temperley at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Temperley Atlanta ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Atlanta	33.3%	45.1%	-11.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	32.4%	-2.8 pp	Aligned
Temperley	37.1%	22.5%	+14.6 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Temperley's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Atlanta win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Temperley.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Temperley; match finished Atlanta

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Temperley by 14.6 percentage points (22.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlanta 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Temperley 37.0%
- xG · Atlanta 1.26 — Temperley 1.34
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlanta 2.11 · Draw 2.94 · Temperley 4.23
- Implied 1X2 · Atlanta 45.1% · Draw 32.4% · Temperley 22.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlanta 2.11 · Draw 2.94 · Temperley 4.23
- Implied 1X2 · Atlanta 45.1% · Draw 32.4% · Temperley 22.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Atlanta win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2829735

Closing Odds 4.23

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Atlanta win · Atlanta 1–0 Temperley

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Nacional
Fixture: Atlanta vs Temperley
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Atlanta 1.26 — Temperley 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	31	18	7	6	61
2	Deportivo Moron	31	16	7	8	55
3	Godoy Cruz	31	15	8	8	53
4	Deportivo Madryn	31	13	11	7	50
5	Colon Santa Fe	31	13	10	8	49
6	Almirante Brown	31	12	10	9	46
7	CA Estudiantes	31	12	9	10	45
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	31	10	12	9	42
9	Los Andes	31	9	13	9	40
10	Chaco For Ever	31	9	9	13	36
11	Defensores De Belgrano	31	8	12	11	36
12	Racing Cordoba	31	9	9	13	36
13	San Telmo	31	8	10	13	34
14	All Boys	31	6	15	10	33
15	Central Norte	31	6	14	11	32
16	Atletico Mitre	31	6	14	11	32
17	San Miguel	31	6	13	12	31
18	Acassuso	31	7	8	16	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Deportivo Moron	31	49	31	+18	55
2	Deportivo Madryn	31	44	28	+16	50
3	Godoy Cruz	31	40	28	+12	53
4	Colon Santa Fe	31	38	25	+13	49
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	31	36	25	+11	61
6	CA Estudiantes	31	29	26	+3	45
7	Chaco For Ever	31	28	31	-3	36
8	Racing Cordoba	31	28	38	-10	36
9	Atletico Mitre	31	27	39	-12	32
10	Ciudad de Bolívar	31	26	28	-2	42
11	San Telmo	31	25	34	-9	34
12	San Miguel	31	25	36	-11	31
13	Los Andes	31	24	21	+3	40
14	Almirante Brown	31	23	18	+5	46
15	Defensores De Belgrano	31	23	27	-4	36
16	Acassuso	31	22	34	-12	29
17	Central Norte	31	19	28	-9	32
18	All Boys	31	17	26	-9	33