Predictions / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Acassuso vs San Telmo

Prediction Audit: Acassuso vs San Telmo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Acassuso Acassuso
Aug 26, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 72%
San Telmo San Telmo

The model missed the final outcome (San Telmo win 1–2).

The model had projected Acassuso at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Acassuso San Telmo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates San Telmo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: San Telmo +5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Acassuso 39.5% 42.9% -3.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 31.9% -2.4 pp Aligned
San Telmo 31.0% 25.2% +5.8 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates San Telmo's win probability at 31.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.2%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was San Telmo win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on San Telmo.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Acassuso; match finished San Telmo

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Acassuso by 5.8 percentage points (33.6% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Acassuso 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · San Telmo 31.0%
    • xG · Acassuso 1.39 — San Telmo 1.21
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Acassuso 2.22 · Draw 2.98 · San Telmo 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Acassuso 42.9% · Draw 31.9% · San Telmo 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Acassuso 2.22 · Draw 2.98 · San Telmo 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Acassuso 42.9% · Draw 31.9% · San Telmo 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result San Telmo win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 70/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1451507

Closing Odds 3.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result San Telmo win · Acassuso 1–2 San Telmo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Acassuso vs San Telmo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Acassuso 1.39 — San Telmo 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 29 16 7 6 55
2 Ferro Carril Oeste 29 16 7 6 55
3 Godoy Cruz 29 14 7 8 49
4 Deportivo Madryn 29 12 10 7 46
5 Almirante Brown 29 12 10 7 46
6 Colon Santa Fe 29 12 9 8 45
7 CA Estudiantes 29 10 9 10 39
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 29 9 12 8 39
9 Los Andes 29 8 13 8 37
10 Racing Cordoba 29 9 8 12 35
11 Chaco For Ever 29 8 9 12 33
12 Defensores De Belgrano 29 7 12 10 33
13 Atletico Mitre 29 6 14 9 32
14 Central Norte 29 6 13 10 31
15 All Boys 29 6 13 10 31
16 San Telmo 29 7 10 12 31
17 San Miguel 29 6 12 11 30
18 Acassuso 29 5 8 16 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 29 47 27 +20 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 29 42 28 +14 46
3 Godoy Cruz 29 36 25 +11 49
4 Colon Santa Fe 29 35 25 +10 45
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 29 34 25 +9 55
6 Atletico Mitre 29 27 35 -8 32
7 CA Estudiantes 29 26 25 +1 39
8 Chaco For Ever 29 26 29 -3 33
9 Racing Cordoba 29 26 34 -8 35
10 Ciudad de Bolívar 29 24 26 -2 39
11 Almirante Brown 29 23 16 +7 46
12 San Telmo 29 23 33 -10 31
13 San Miguel 29 23 33 -10 30
14 Los Andes 29 22 17 +5 37
15 Defensores De Belgrano 29 22 26 -4 33
16 Central Norte 29 19 27 -8 31
17 Acassuso 29 19 34 -15 23
18 All Boys 29 16 25 -9 31
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