Predictions / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / San Telmo vs Chaco For Ever

Prediction Audit: San Telmo vs Chaco For Ever Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

San Telmo San Telmo
Jul 11, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 59%
Chaco For Ever Chaco For Ever

The model missed the final outcome (Chaco For Ever win 1–3).

The model had projected San Telmo at 36.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 San Telmo Chaco For Ever ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned San Telmo; match finished Chaco For Ever

Market lesson

The full-time result was Chaco For Ever win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 11, 2026 · 21:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · San Telmo 1.25 — Chaco For Ever 1.35
  2. Jul 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Chaco For Ever win · 1–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 00:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1519333

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chaco For Ever win · San Telmo 1–3 Chaco For Ever
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: San Telmo vs Chaco For Ever
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): San Telmo 1.25 — Chaco For Ever 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 33 18 8 7 62
2 Deportivo Moron 33 17 7 9 58
3 Godoy Cruz 32 16 8 8 56
4 Deportivo Madryn 33 14 11 8 53
5 Colon Santa Fe 33 14 11 8 53
6 CA Estudiantes 33 13 9 11 48
7 Almirante Brown 33 12 11 10 47
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 32 11 12 9 45
9 Los Andes 32 9 13 10 40
10 Chaco For Ever 33 10 10 13 40
11 Defensores De Belgrano 33 8 13 12 37
12 San Telmo 32 9 10 13 37
13 Racing Cordoba 32 9 10 13 37
14 Atletico Mitre 33 7 15 11 36
15 Central Norte 33 6 16 11 34
16 All Boys 32 6 15 11 33
17 Acassuso 33 8 8 17 32
18 San Miguel 33 6 14 13 32
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 33 51 34 +17 58
2 Deportivo Madryn 33 47 30 +17 53
3 Godoy Cruz 32 42 29 +13 56
4 Colon Santa Fe 33 39 25 +14 53
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 33 37 28 +9 62
6 Chaco For Ever 33 32 34 -2 40
7 CA Estudiantes 33 31 27 +4 48
8 Racing Cordoba 32 29 39 -10 37
9 Atletico Mitre 33 29 39 -10 36
10 San Telmo 32 28 36 -8 37
11 Ciudad de Bolívar 32 27 28 -1 45
12 Almirante Brown 33 26 22 +4 47
13 San Miguel 33 26 39 -13 32
14 Los Andes 32 25 23 +2 40
15 Defensores De Belgrano 33 25 32 -7 37
16 Acassuso 33 25 35 -10 32
17 Central Norte 33 21 30 -9 34
18 All Boys 32 18 28 -10 33
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