Predictions / Football / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Nueva Chicago vs Atletico DE Rafaela

Prediction Audit: Nueva Chicago vs Atletico DE Rafaela Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago
Jun 23, 2026 - 21:30
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Nueva Chicago at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nueva Chicago Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Nueva Chicago; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 23, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Nueva Chicago 1.32 — Atletico DE Rafaela 1.28
  2. Jun 23, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1536862

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Nueva Chicago 0–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera Nacional
  • Fixture: Nueva Chicago vs Atletico DE Rafaela
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-23 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Nueva Chicago 1.32 — Atletico DE Rafaela 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 32 18 7 7 61
2 Deportivo Moron 32 17 7 8 58
3 Deportivo Madryn 32 14 11 7 53
4 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 53
5 Colon Santa Fe 32 14 10 8 52
6 Almirante Brown 32 12 10 10 46
7 CA Estudiantes 32 12 9 11 45
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 32 11 12 9 45
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 40
10 Chaco For Ever 32 9 10 13 37
11 Defensores De Belgrano 32 8 13 11 37
12 San Telmo 32 9 10 13 37
13 Racing Cordoba 32 9 10 13 37
14 Atletico Mitre 32 7 14 11 35
15 Central Norte 32 6 15 11 33
16 All Boys 32 6 15 11 33
17 San Miguel 32 6 13 13 31
18 Acassuso 32 7 8 17 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Moron 32 51 32 +19 58
2 Deportivo Madryn 32 46 28 +18 53
3 Godoy Cruz 31 40 28 +12 53
4 Colon Santa Fe 32 39 25 +14 52
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 32 36 27 +9 61
6 Chaco For Ever 32 30 33 -3 37
7 CA Estudiantes 32 29 27 +2 45
8 Racing Cordoba 32 29 39 -10 37
9 Atletico Mitre 32 29 39 -10 35
10 San Telmo 32 28 36 -8 37
11 Ciudad de Bolívar 32 27 28 -1 45
12 Almirante Brown 32 25 21 +4 46
13 Defensores De Belgrano 32 25 29 -4 37
14 San Miguel 32 25 38 -13 31
15 Los Andes 31 24 21 +3 40
16 Acassuso 32 22 35 -13 29
17 Central Norte 32 20 29 -9 33
18 All Boys 32 18 28 -10 33
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