The model missed the final outcome (Nouadhibou win 0–4).
The model had projected Pompiers at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Pompiers Nouadhibou ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Pompiers; match finished Nouadhibou
Market lesson
The full-time result was Nouadhibou win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Pompiers 1.49 — Nouadhibou 1.23
-
Jan 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nouadhibou win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Nouadhibou win · Pompiers 0–4 Nouadhibou
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nouadhibou | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 35 |
| 2 | AC Douane | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
| 3 | N'Zidane | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
| 4 | Pompiers | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 27 |
| 5 | Nouakchott Academie | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | SNIM | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Police | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Chemal | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 9 | Gendrim | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 10 | Nouakchott King's | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 11 | Tevragh-Zeïne | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 | Kaédi | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 |
| 13 | Inter Nouakchott | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
| 14 | Ksar | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Douane | 15 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 | N'Zidane | 15 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 30 |
| 3 | Nouadhibou | 15 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 35 |
| 4 | Police | 15 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 | Nouakchott Academie | 15 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 6 | Pompiers | 15 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 27 |
| 7 | SNIM | 15 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 | Chemal | 15 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Nouakchott King's | 15 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Gendrim | 15 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Tevragh-Zeïne | 15 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 13 |
| 12 | Kaédi | 15 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 | Inter Nouakchott | 15 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 | Ksar | 15 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 5 |
