Predictions / Football / Montenegro. First League / Jezero vs Mornar

Prediction Audit: Jezero vs Mornar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jezero Jezero
May 24, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Mornar Mornar

The model missed the final outcome (Mornar win 0–2).

The model had projected Jezero at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Jezero Mornar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Jezero considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Jezero +7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jezero 41.8% 34.4% +7.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 29.8% -4.2 pp Aligned
Mornar 32.6% 35.8% -3.2 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Jezero's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.4%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mornar win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Jezero.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jezero by 7.4 percentage points (34.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 20:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jezero 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Mornar 32.6%
    • xG · Jezero 1.45 — Mornar 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jezero 2.60 · Draw 3.00 · Mornar 2.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Jezero 34.4% · Draw 29.8% · Mornar 35.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jezero 2.60 · Draw 3.00 · Mornar 2.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Jezero 34.4% · Draw 29.8% · Mornar 35.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 24, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mornar win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 20:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1502151

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mornar win · Jezero 0–2 Mornar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Jezero vs Mornar
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Jezero 1.45 — Mornar 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 59.4% · Implied: 46.5% · Probability edge: +12.9 pts · Est. EV: +18.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.4% · No 40.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 22 6 8 72
2 Mornar 36 20 9 7 69
3 Petrovac 36 13 12 11 51
4 Dečić 36 14 9 13 51
5 Buducnost Podgorica 36 13 9 14 48
6 Mladost DG 36 14 4 18 46
7 Arsenal Tivat 36 12 10 14 46
8 Jezero 36 10 11 15 41
9 Bokelj 36 8 12 16 36
10 Jedinstvo 36 9 8 19 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 61 36 +25 72
2 Mornar 36 51 29 +22 69
3 Mladost DG 36 49 54 -5 46
4 Petrovac 36 44 36 +8 51
5 Dečić 36 43 45 -2 51
6 Jezero 36 38 48 -10 41
7 Bokelj 36 38 48 -10 36
8 Buducnost Podgorica 36 36 35 +1 48
9 Arsenal Tivat 36 36 46 -10 46
10 Jedinstvo 36 30 49 -19 35