Predictions / Football / Montenegro. First League / Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG

Prediction Audit: Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arsenal Tivat Arsenal Tivat
May 24, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Mladost DG Mladost DG

The model missed the final outcome (Mladost DG win 1–4).

The model had projected Arsenal Tivat at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arsenal Tivat Mladost DG ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Mladost DG +4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arsenal Tivat 41.8% 42.9% -1.1 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 29.1% -3.4 pp Aligned
Mladost DG 32.6% 28.0% +4.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mladost DG win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Arsenal Tivat; match finished Mladost DG

Market lesson

The full-time result was Mladost DG win 1–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 20:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Mladost DG 32.6%
    • xG · Arsenal Tivat 1.45 — Mladost DG 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arsenal Tivat 2.14 · Draw 3.15 · Mladost DG 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 42.9% · Draw 29.1% · Mladost DG 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arsenal Tivat 2.14 · Draw 3.15 · Mladost DG 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 42.9% · Draw 29.1% · Mladost DG 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 24, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mladost DG win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2024833

Closing Odds 3.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mladost DG win · Arsenal Tivat 1–4 Mladost DG
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Arsenal Tivat 1.45 — Mladost DG 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS No (Yes 42.4% · No 57.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.4% · No 57.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 22 6 8 72
2 Mornar 36 20 9 7 69
3 Petrovac 36 13 12 11 51
4 Dečić 36 14 9 13 51
5 Buducnost Podgorica 36 13 9 14 48
6 Mladost DG 36 14 4 18 46
7 Arsenal Tivat 36 12 10 14 46
8 Jezero 36 10 11 15 41
9 Bokelj 36 8 12 16 36
10 Jedinstvo 36 9 8 19 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 61 36 +25 72
2 Mornar 36 51 29 +22 69
3 Mladost DG 36 49 54 -5 46
4 Petrovac 36 44 36 +8 51
5 Dečić 36 43 45 -2 51
6 Jezero 36 38 48 -10 41
7 Bokelj 36 38 48 -10 36
8 Buducnost Podgorica 36 36 35 +1 48
9 Arsenal Tivat 36 36 46 -10 46
10 Jedinstvo 36 30 49 -19 35