Predictions / Football / Montenegro. First League / Mladost DG vs Sutjeska

Prediction Audit: Mladost DG vs Sutjeska Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mladost DG Mladost DG
May 20, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Sutjeska Sutjeska

The model missed the final outcome (Sutjeska win 0–1).

The model had projected Mladost DG at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mladost DG Sutjeska ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Mladost DG considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Mladost DG +17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mladost DG 41.8% 24.0% +17.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.7% -0.0 pp Aligned
Sutjeska 32.6% 50.3% -17.7 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Mladost DG's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.0%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sutjeska win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Mladost DG.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mladost DG by 17.8 percentage points (24.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 20, 2026 · 18:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mladost DG 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sutjeska 32.6%
    • xG · Mladost DG 1.45 — Sutjeska 1.25
  2. May 20, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mladost DG 3.81 · Draw 3.56 · Sutjeska 1.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Mladost DG 24.0% · Draw 25.7% · Sutjeska 50.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 20, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mladost DG 3.81 · Draw 3.56 · Sutjeska 1.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Mladost DG 24.0% · Draw 25.7% · Sutjeska 50.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sutjeska win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2932734

Closing Odds 3.81
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Sutjeska win · Mladost DG 0–1 Sutjeska
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Mladost DG vs Sutjeska
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-20 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Mladost DG 1.45 — Sutjeska 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 65.2% · Implied: 50.5% · Probability edge: +14.7 pts · Est. EV: +20.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.2% · No 34.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 22 6 8 72
2 Mornar 36 20 9 7 69
3 Petrovac 36 13 12 11 51
4 Dečić 36 14 9 13 51
5 Buducnost Podgorica 36 13 9 14 48
6 Mladost DG 36 14 4 18 46
7 Arsenal Tivat 36 12 10 14 46
8 Jezero 36 10 11 15 41
9 Bokelj 36 8 12 16 36
10 Jedinstvo 36 9 8 19 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 61 36 +25 72
2 Mornar 36 51 29 +22 69
3 Mladost DG 36 49 54 -5 46
4 Petrovac 36 44 36 +8 51
5 Dečić 36 43 45 -2 51
6 Jezero 36 38 48 -10 41
7 Bokelj 36 38 48 -10 36
8 Buducnost Podgorica 36 36 35 +1 48
9 Arsenal Tivat 36 36 46 -10 46
10 Jedinstvo 36 30 49 -19 35