The model missed the final outcome (Arsenal Tivat win 1–2).
The model had projected Dečić at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Dečić Arsenal Tivat ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dečić | 41.8% | 34.7% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 28.8% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Arsenal Tivat | 32.6% | 36.5% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Dečić's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.7%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Arsenal Tivat win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dečić.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dečić by 7.1 percentage points (34.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 20, 2026 · 18:33 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dečić 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Arsenal Tivat 32.6%
- xG · Dečić 1.45 — Arsenal Tivat 1.25
-
May 20, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dečić 2.64 · Draw 3.18 · Arsenal Tivat 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · Dečić 34.7% · Draw 28.8% · Arsenal Tivat 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 20, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dečić 2.64 · Draw 3.18 · Arsenal Tivat 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · Dečić 34.7% · Draw 28.8% · Arsenal Tivat 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Arsenal Tivat win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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First League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutjeska | 36 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 72 |
| 2 | Mornar | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 69 |
| 3 | Petrovac | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 51 |
| 4 | Dečić | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 51 |
| 5 | Buducnost Podgorica | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 48 |
| 6 | Mladost DG | 36 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 7 | Arsenal Tivat | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 46 |
| 8 | Jezero | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 41 |
| 9 | Bokelj | 36 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 36 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 35 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutjeska | 36 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 72 |
| 2 | Mornar | 36 | 51 | 29 | +22 | 69 |
| 3 | Mladost DG | 36 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 46 |
| 4 | Petrovac | 36 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 51 |
| 5 | Dečić | 36 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 51 |
| 6 | Jezero | 36 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 41 |
| 7 | Bokelj | 36 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 36 |
| 8 | Buducnost Podgorica | 36 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 48 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tivat | 36 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo | 36 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 35 |
