Predictions / Football / Montenegro. First League / Arsenal Tivat vs Sutjeska

Prediction Audit: Arsenal Tivat vs Sutjeska Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arsenal Tivat Arsenal Tivat
May 09, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Sutjeska Sutjeska

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Arsenal Tivat at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Arsenal Tivat Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Arsenal Tivat considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Arsenal Tivat +17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arsenal Tivat 41.8% 23.9% +17.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 29.8% -4.1 pp Aligned
Sutjeska 32.6% 46.3% -13.7 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Arsenal Tivat's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arsenal Tivat.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Arsenal Tivat; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Arsenal Tivat by 17.8 percentage points (24.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sutjeska 32.6%
    • xG · Arsenal Tivat 1.45 — Sutjeska 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arsenal Tivat 3.83 · Draw 3.08 · Sutjeska 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 23.9% · Draw 29.8% · Sutjeska 46.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arsenal Tivat 3.83 · Draw 3.08 · Sutjeska 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 23.9% · Draw 29.8% · Sutjeska 46.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 07:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1561053

Closing Odds 3.83
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Arsenal Tivat 1–1 Sutjeska
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Arsenal Tivat vs Sutjeska
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Arsenal Tivat 1.45 — Sutjeska 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Arsenal Tivat
  • Model: 41.8% · Implied: 23.9% · Probability edge: +17.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.5% · No 52.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 22 6 8 72
2 Mornar 36 20 9 7 69
3 Petrovac 36 13 12 11 51
4 Dečić 36 14 9 13 51
5 Buducnost Podgorica 36 13 9 14 48
6 Mladost DG 36 14 4 18 46
7 Arsenal Tivat 36 12 10 14 46
8 Jezero 36 10 11 15 41
9 Bokelj 36 8 12 16 36
10 Jedinstvo 36 9 8 19 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 61 36 +25 72
2 Mornar 36 51 29 +22 69
3 Mladost DG 36 49 54 -5 46
4 Petrovac 36 44 36 +8 51
5 Dečić 36 43 45 -2 51
6 Jezero 36 38 48 -10 41
7 Bokelj 36 38 48 -10 36
8 Buducnost Podgorica 36 36 35 +1 48
9 Arsenal Tivat 36 36 46 -10 46
10 Jedinstvo 36 30 49 -19 35