Predictions / Football / Montenegro. First League / Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat

Prediction Audit: Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jezero Jezero
May 02, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Arsenal Tivat Arsenal Tivat

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Jezero at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Jezero Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -14.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jezero 41.8% 30.0% +11.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 40.4% -14.8 pp Market Higher
Arsenal Tivat 32.6% 29.6% +3.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 40.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.7%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Draw than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jezero by 14.8 percentage points (56.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jezero 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Arsenal Tivat 32.6%
    • xG · Jezero 1.45 — Arsenal Tivat 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jezero 3.09 · Draw 2.29 · Arsenal Tivat 3.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Jezero 30.0% · Draw 40.4% · Arsenal Tivat 29.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jezero 3.09 · Draw 2.29 · Arsenal Tivat 3.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Jezero 30.0% · Draw 40.4% · Arsenal Tivat 29.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 02, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1468374

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Jezero 0–0 Arsenal Tivat
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Back to Predictions
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 22 6 8 72
2 Mornar 36 20 9 7 69
3 Petrovac 36 13 12 11 51
4 Dečić 36 14 9 13 51
5 Buducnost Podgorica 36 13 9 14 48
6 Mladost DG 36 14 4 18 46
7 Arsenal Tivat 36 12 10 14 46
8 Jezero 36 10 11 15 41
9 Bokelj 36 8 12 16 36
10 Jedinstvo 36 9 8 19 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sutjeska 36 61 36 +25 72
2 Mornar 36 51 29 +22 69
3 Mladost DG 36 49 54 -5 46
4 Petrovac 36 44 36 +8 51
5 Dečić 36 43 45 -2 51
6 Jezero 36 38 48 -10 41
7 Bokelj 36 38 48 -10 36
8 Buducnost Podgorica 36 36 35 +1 48
9 Arsenal Tivat 36 36 46 -10 46
10 Jedinstvo 36 30 49 -19 35