The model missed the final outcome (Sutjeska win 2–3).
The model had projected Bokelj at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Bokelj Sutjeska ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bokelj | 41.8% | 19.8% | +21.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 28.5% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Sutjeska | 32.6% | 51.7% | -19.1 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Bokelj's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.8%, a difference of 21.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Sutjeska win 2–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Bokelj; match finished Sutjeska
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bokelj by 21.9 percentage points (19.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bokelj 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sutjeska 32.6%
- xG · Bokelj 1.45 — Sutjeska 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bokelj 4.67 · Draw 3.25 · Sutjeska 1.79
- Implied 1X2 · Bokelj 19.8% · Draw 28.5% · Sutjeska 51.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bokelj 4.67 · Draw 3.25 · Sutjeska 1.79
- Implied 1X2 · Bokelj 19.8% · Draw 28.5% · Sutjeska 51.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sutjeska win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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First League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutjeska | 36 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 72 |
| 2 | Mornar | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 69 |
| 3 | Petrovac | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 51 |
| 4 | Dečić | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 51 |
| 5 | Buducnost Podgorica | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 48 |
| 6 | Mladost DG | 36 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 7 | Arsenal Tivat | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 46 |
| 8 | Jezero | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 41 |
| 9 | Bokelj | 36 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 36 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 35 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutjeska | 36 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 72 |
| 2 | Mornar | 36 | 51 | 29 | +22 | 69 |
| 3 | Mladost DG | 36 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 46 |
| 4 | Petrovac | 36 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 51 |
| 5 | Dečić | 36 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 51 |
| 6 | Jezero | 36 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 41 |
| 7 | Bokelj | 36 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 36 |
| 8 | Buducnost Podgorica | 36 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 48 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tivat | 36 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo | 36 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 35 |
