The model missed the final outcome (Sandviken win 5–0).
The model had projected GIF Sundsvall at 42.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 GIF Sundsvall Sandviken ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.48) — 5 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned GIF Sundsvall; match finished Sandviken
Market lesson
The full-time result was Sandviken win 5–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Sandviken 1.63 — GIF Sundsvall 1.85
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sandviken win · 5–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sandviken win · Sandviken 5–0 GIF Sundsvall
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Superettan — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 55 |
| 2 | falkenbergs FF | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 45 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 44 |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 43 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40 |
| 6 | Oddevold | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 7 | Osters IF | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 36 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| 9 | Sandviken | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 11 | IFK Varnamo | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 12 | ljungSKile SK | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 25 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 24 |
| 14 | Orebro SK | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
| 15 | IK brage | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 23 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 25 | 48 | 16 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 | falkenbergs FF | 25 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 45 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 44 | 33 | +11 | 44 |
| 4 | Sandviken | 25 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 34 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 40 |
| 6 | IK brage | 25 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 23 |
| 7 | Oddevold | 25 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 36 |
| 8 | Osters IF | 25 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | United Nordic | 25 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 25 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 30 |
| 11 | Ostersunds FK | 25 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 43 |
| 12 | ljungSKile SK | 25 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 28 |
| 13 | IFK Varnamo | 25 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 29 |
| 14 | Norrby IF | 25 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 25 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | 19 | 53 | -34 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 25 | 4.8 | 2.8 | +2.0 | 44 |
| 2 | IFK Norrkoping | 25 | 4.5 | 2.8 | +1.7 | 55 |
| 3 | ljungSKile SK | 25 | 1.2 | 1.1 | +0.1 | 28 |
| 4 | Oddevold | 25 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 36 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 25 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -1.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Ostersunds FK | 25 | 0.6 | 3.4 | -2.8 | 43 |
| 7 | falkenbergs FF | 25 | — | — | — | 45 |
| 8 | Osters IF | 25 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 9 | United Nordic | 25 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 10 | Sandviken | 25 | — | — | — | 34 |
| 11 | Helsingborg | 25 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 12 | IFK Varnamo | 25 | — | — | — | 29 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 25 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 14 | Orebro SK | 25 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 15 | IK brage | 25 | — | — | — | 23 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 25 | — | — | — | 19 |
