Predictions / Football / Sweden. Superettan / United Nordic vs ljungSKile SK

Prediction Audit: United Nordic vs ljungSKile SK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

United Nordic United Nordic
Aug 02, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.60
2 1.88
xG Accuracy: 87%
ljungSKile SK ljungSKile SK

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected ljungSKile SK at 43.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ljungSKile SK Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates ljungSKile SK considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: ljungSKile SK +9.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
United Nordic 32.0% 40.9% -8.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.6% 25.0% -0.5 pp Aligned
ljungSKile SK 43.5% 34.0% +9.4 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates ljungSKile SK's win probability at 43.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on ljungSKile SK.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.48) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned ljungSKile SK; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ljungSKile SK by 9.4 percentage points (34.1% vs model 43.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · United Nordic 31.9% · Draw 24.6% · ljungSKile SK 43.5%
    • xG · United Nordic 1.60 — ljungSKile SK 1.88
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · United Nordic 2.33 · Draw 3.81 · ljungSKile SK 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · United Nordic 40.9% · Draw 25.0% · ljungSKile SK 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · United Nordic 2.33 · Draw 3.81 · ljungSKile SK 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · United Nordic 40.9% · Draw 25.0% · ljungSKile SK 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1944764

Closing Odds 2.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · United Nordic 2–2 ljungSKile SK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Superettan
  • Fixture: United Nordic vs ljungSKile SK
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 24.6% · Away 43.5%
  • xG (showing): United Nordic 1.6 — ljungSKile SK 1.88 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): ljungSKile SK
  • Model: 43.5% · Implied: 34.1% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.8% · No 31.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Superettan Superettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 13 6 6 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 13 5 7 44
4 Ostersunds FK 25 11 10 4 43
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 11 7 7 40
6 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 36
7 Osters IF 25 11 3 11 36
8 United Nordic 25 9 9 7 36
9 Sandviken 25 9 7 9 34
10 Helsingborg 25 8 6 11 30
11 IFK Varnamo 25 8 5 12 29
12 ljungSKile SK 25 7 7 11 28
13 Norrby IF 25 4 12 9 24
14 Orebro SK 25 5 9 11 24
15 IK brage 25 5 8 12 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 6 1 18 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 IFK Norrkoping 25 48 16 +32 55
2 falkenbergs FF 25 46 33 +13 45
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 44 33 +11 44
4 Sandviken 25 41 35 +6 34
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 39 26 +13 40
6 IK brage 25 39 48 -9 23
7 Oddevold 25 38 34 +4 36
8 Osters IF 25 38 38 0 36
9 United Nordic 25 38 40 -2 36
10 Helsingborg 25 36 45 -9 30
11 Ostersunds FK 25 33 24 +9 43
12 ljungSKile SK 25 33 36 -3 28
13 IFK Varnamo 25 33 45 -12 29
14 Norrby IF 25 28 35 -7 24
15 Orebro SK 25 27 39 -12 24
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 19 53 -34 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Varbergs BoIS FC 25 4.8 2.8 +2.0 44
2 IFK Norrkoping 25 4.5 2.8 +1.7 55
3 ljungSKile SK 25 1.2 1.1 +0.1 28
4 Oddevold 25 1.1 1.2 -0.1 36
5 Landskrona BoIS 25 1.6 2.6 -1.0 40
6 Ostersunds FK 25 0.6 3.4 -2.8 43
7 falkenbergs FF 25 — — — 45
8 Osters IF 25 — — — 36
9 United Nordic 25 — — — 36
10 Sandviken 25 — — — 34
11 Helsingborg 25 — — — 30
12 IFK Varnamo 25 — — — 29
13 Norrby IF 25 — — — 24
14 Orebro SK 25 — — — 24
15 IK brage 25 — — — 23
16 GIF Sundsvall 25 — — — 19